[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun May 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy rain over the NE Caribbean Sea and Hispaniola: Current radar
imagery from Puerto Rico shows large clusters of showers and
thunderstorms S of Puerto Rico, moving northeastward toward the
Virgin Islands and northern Leeward Islands. This is related to a
surface trough reaching across the Leeward Islands to the east-
central Caribbean. Heavy rainfall has been reported across the
islands, with Guadeloupe receiving over 11 inches of rain in the
past 24 hours. The rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides
across portions of these islands through today, particularly in
mountainous terrain. Please consult products issued by your local
or national meteorological service for more details. Looking
ahead, the upper trough supporting the surface features is
weakening, and drier air in the mid and upper levels of the
atmosphere is starting to move across the region behind the upper
trough. With this, the heavier rainfall should diminish through
the early part of the week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa remaining onshore. The
ITCZ continues from 08N13W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted S of 06N between 12W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic, across Florida
and the northern Gulf to the coast of Texas. A surface trough is
evident off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, while another
trough extends over the northwestern waters from 27N95W to 23N98W.
This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 3
to 5 ft seas in the vicinity of the troughs. Another trough is
analyzed over the western coast of Florida from 27N82W to 24N84W
with moderate E winds and seas up to 4 ft. Gentle to moderate E
to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere. Observations
from southern Mexico indicate hazy conditions in some area,
likely impacting the visibility over the southwest Gulf. Platform
observations are also reporting a few areas of fog over the
northwest Gulf. Generally fair conditions are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
during the next several days producing a moderate to fresh
anticyclonic flow. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected near
and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through midweek.
Fresh to strong southerly return flow will briefly set-up across
the NW Gulf tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
potential for heavy rain now through tonight for the Virgin
Islands and Leeward Islands.

A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong E winds near
the southern coast of Hispaniola, and off the central coast of
Honduras and the Bay Islands. Moderate to fresh winds are noted
elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the northwest Caribbean, and 4
to 6 ft elsewhere. In addition to the clusters of showers and
thunderstorms over the northeast Caribbean mentioned in the
Special Features section above, scattered showers are evident
over the southwest Caribbean where trade wind flow is converging
into the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the Caribbean
Sea will support fresh to strong winds over parts of the east and
central Caribbean during the next several days. Fresh to strong
winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean, near the
coast of Colombia beginning on Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N47W to 26N56W, then becomes
stationary to 24N68W. A 1022 mb high pressure is centered N of the
front between Bermuda and northeast Florida at 30N72W. A surface
trough is evident ahead of the front from 22N56W through the
Leeward Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
within 90 nm east of this trough from 19N to 27N. Moderate to
fresh E to SE winds are evident W of 65W, with 5 to 7 ft seas over
open waters. Farther east, 1029 mb high pressure centered just
southwest of the Azores is maintaining moderate to fresh trade
winds and 6 to 9 ft seas S of 20N, gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas N of 20N and W of 35W, and moderate to
fresh NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas N of 20N and E of 35W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will slide southeastward
across the forecast waters today becoming stationary on Mon. The
stationary part of the front will continue to weaken while
drifting northward today. At the same time, a surface trough
currently located over the NE Caribbean will drift northwestward,
reaching Hispaniola and the Atlantic regional waters today, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba on Mon. The
combination of this trough with enhanced favorable upper-level
dynamics will continue to produce periods of heavy rainfall across
the area. No significant change for the waters between 35W and
55W.

$$
ERA
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