[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun May 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy rain over the NE Caribbean Sea and Hispaniola: Current radar
imagery from Puerto Rico shows large clusters of showers and
thunderstorms south of Puerto Rico, moving northeastward toward
the Virgin Islands and northern Leeward Islands. This is related
to a surface trough reaching across the Leeward Islands to the
east-central Caribbean. Heavy rainfall has been reported across
the islands, with Guadeloupe receiving over 11 inches of rain in
the past 24 hours. The rains may produce flash flooding and
mudslides across portions of these islands through today,
particularly in mountainous terrain. Please consult products
issued by your local or national meteorological service for more
details. Looking ahead, the upper trough supporting the surface
features is starting to weaken, and drier air in the mid and upper
levels of the atmosphere is starting to move across the region
behind the upper trough. Thus the heavier rainfall should diminish
through the early part of the week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 01S45W.
Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted from 00N to 03N
between 38W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic across Florida
and the northern Gulf to the coast of Texas. A trough is evident
off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern is
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas off
the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula
currently. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft prevail
elsewhere. Observations from southern Mexico indicate hazy
conditions in some area, likely impacting the visibility over the
southwest Gulf. Platform observations are also reporting a few
areas of fog over the northwest Gulf. Generally fair conditions
are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
during the next several days producing a moderate to fresh
anticyclonic flow. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected near
and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through midweek.
Fresh to strong southerly return flow will briefly set-up across
the NW Gulf on Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
potential for heavy rain now through Sun night for the Virgin
Islands and Leeward Islands.

A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong E winds off
Cabo Beata on the southern coast of Hispaniola, and off the
central coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands. Moderate to fresh
winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the northwest
Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. In addition to the clusters
of showers and thunderstorms over the northeast Caribbean
mentioned in the Special Features, a few showers are evident over
the southwest Caribbean where trade wind flow is converging into
the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the Caribbean
Sea will support fresh to strong winds over parts of the east and
central Caribbean during the next several days. Fresh to strong
winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean, near the
coast of Colombia beginning on Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front reaches from 31N49W to 25N60W to 24N63W, where it
becomes stationary and continues toward the northern Bahamas. 1023
mb high pressure is centered north of the front between Bermuda
and northeast Florida at 30N72W. A surface trough is evident ahead
of the front from 24N57W through the Leeward Islands. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are noted within 90 nm east of this
trough from 19n to 21N. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are
evident west of 65W, with 5 to 7 ft seas over open waters. Farther
east, 1029 mb high pressure centered just southwest of the Azores
is maintaining moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 9 ft seas
south of 20N, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
north of 20N and west of 35W, and moderate to fresh NE winds and
5 to 7 ft seas north of 20N and east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will slide southeastward
across the forecast waters on Sun becoming stationary east of 65W
on Mon. The stationary part of the front will continue to weaken
while drifting northward through Sun. At the same time, a surface
trough currently located over the NE Caribbean will drift
northwestward, reaching Hispaniola and the Atlantic regional
waters on Sun, and the Turks and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba
on Mon. The combination of this trough with enhanced favorable
upper-level dynamics will continue to produce periods of heavy
rainfall across the area. No significant change for the waters
between 35W and 55W.

$$
Christensen
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