[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Mar 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone
near 07N12W to 03N14W. The ITCZ begins from 03N14W to 00N20W to
03S30W to the Brazil coast near 00SN46W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 05W
and 23W, and from 08S to 00N between 19W and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front moved east of the Gulf of Mexico, now extending
over the Florida Straits bringing fresh to strong NW winds
behind it over the eastern Gulf. A secondary cold front, void of
precipitation, stretches from Destin, Florida to the central
Gulf near 26N90W. A surge of fresh to locally strong NW winds is
noted behind this front to 90W. A 1023 mb high pressure center
is located over the Bay of Campeche, allowing for moderate to
fresh NW winds in the northwest Gulf SW return flow in the
southwest Gulf. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the basin, except near
the Yucatan Channel, sea heights are up to 6 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will
continue behind the cold front that moved east of the basin this
morning. The secondary front will move mainly across the
northern waters, reaching the NE Gulf by this afternoon, exiting
the basin tonight. Moderate to fresh NW winds are expected
behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The minimal gale-force winds have diminished off the coast of
Colombia this morning. Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails
across the basin, which is leading to subsidence and mostly dry
conditions over the central and easter Caribbean, with fresh to
strong trade winds noted in a recent scatterometer pass.  A cold
front has entered the NW Caribbean and extends from western Cuba
to the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh northerly winds are noted behind
the front in the Yucatan Channel and the Gulf of Honduras. Wave
heights are in the 8-11 ft range in the south-central and SW
Caribbean, reaching up to 12 ft off NW Colombia noted in buoy
data. Buoy and altimeter data also noted 7 to 9 ft seas over the
north-central and eastern basin and 3 to 6 ft seas in the NW
Caribbean.

For the forecast, the aerial extent of the fresh to strong winds
across the eastern and central Caribbean will gradually decrease
today. A smaller area of fresh to strong trades will persist
over the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. The cold
front will bring fresh to strong winds across the Yucatan
Channel and Gulf of Honduras today and tonight. The front will
gradually dissipate by Sun. Fresh trade winds, along with large
trade-wind swell, across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones
will persist through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches from 30N75W to the northern Bahamas, to
the Florida Straits, to western Cuba. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are within 120 nm ahead of it. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are noted ahead of the front with fresh to
locally strong NW winds behind It. Further east, another cold
front extends across the central and eastern Atlantic from
30N31W to 21N50W. Strong winds are noted behind the front, north
of 25N. High pressure between the two fronts extends a ridge to
the Greater Antilles and is allowing for moderate to fresh
anticyclonic flow between 45W and 55W. Fresh to strong trades
are noted in scatterometer data west of 50W to the Lesser
Antilles. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Rough
seas are noted north of 20 N and between 55W and 30W, as well as
south of 20N and west of 53W to the Lesser Antilles. Mainly 6 to
8 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh trade winds offshore
Hispaniola, including the Windward Passage will pulse to strong
tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds will persist ahead of a
cold front that is currently moving off the south Florida coast.
The front will reach from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and western
Cuba by this afternoon, and from 31N67W to the central Bahamas
and central Cuba by Sat morning. A reinforcing cold front will
push off the NE Florida coast this evening and slowly dissipate
by Sat. This front will bring another round of fresh to strong
winds behind it through tonight. By Sat night, a third cold
front will move off the Florida coast and bring more fresh to
strong winds off the Florida coast through Sun.

For the forecast E of 65W, a low pressure system late this week
near the Azores will have a cold front extending from it
south-southwestward, bringing strong to near gale force winds to
the area north of 25N between 25W-50W through tonight. These
winds will continue to spread eastward through the weekend. Wave
heights are forecast to build to the range of 10-17 ft over the
area affected by these winds.

$$
Mora
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