[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251022
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Mar 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between high pressure across
the western Atlantic and lower pressure over South America will
produce a pulse winds to gale-force near the coast of Colombia
through early this morning. Wave heights with these winds are
forecast to reach 12 ft. These conditions will gradually improve
afterwards and through the weekend as the gradient relaxes. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea Bissau
near 12N15W to 08N17W. The ITCZ begins from 01N22W to 03S32W to
the Brazil coast near 02SN44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 09W and 22W, and from
06S to 03N between 21W and 32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from extreme southwest Florida near 25N81W to
extreme western Cuba near 22N84W. Deep moisture is along and
behind the front across Florida and along and ahead of the front
across the Gulf and the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection extends within about 90 nm NW of the
cold front from the Yucatan Channel to SW Florida. Behind the
front, a 1022 mb high pressure has settled across the W Gulf near
23N95W. A secondary cold front, void of precipitation, is noted
from the Mississippi coast to Corpus Christi, Texas. A surge of
fresh to locally strong NW winds is noted behind this front,
mainly N of 27N, where seas are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere in the Gulf,
behind the main front, mainly moderate to fresh NW to N winds
dominate, except for fresh to strong NNE winds offshore of the
Yucatan Peninsula and across the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas are
3-5 ft there. Ahead of the front in the SE Gulf, winds are gentle
to moderate.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected
behind the front as it exits the Gulf waters this morning. Showers
and thunderstorms are also expected to exit with the front. A
secondary cold front extends from the Mississippi coast to South
Texas. The front will move mainly across the northern waters,
reaching the NE Gulf by this afternoon and exit the basin tonight.
Moderate to fresh NW winds are expected behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia.

Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, which is
leading to subsidence and mostly dry conditions. A cold front has
entered the NW Caribbean and extends from western Cuba near 22N85W
to northwest Honduras near 16N88W. Fresh northerly winds are noted
behind the front in the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly fresh winds
dominate the rest of the basin, with strong winds in the south-
central Caribbean and moderate winds in the NW basin. Wave
heights are in the 8 -11 ft range in the south-central and SW
Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the north- central and eastern basin, and
5-7 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, minimal gale-force winds near the coast of
Colombia will end early this morning. The aerial extent of the
fresh to strong winds across the eastern and central Caribbean
will decrease today. A smaller area of fresh to strong trades will
persist over the south- central Caribbean through the weekend. A
cold front has entered the NW Caribbean and stretches from extreme
western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. This front will bring fresh
to strong winds across the Yucatan Channel and Gulf of Honduras
later today and into tonight. The front will gradually dissipate
by Sun. Fresh trade winds, along with large trade-wind swell,
across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones will persist through
Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is pushing off the South Florida coast, stretching
from 30N78W to 27N80W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are noted
ahead of the front with fresh to locally strong NW winds behind
it. Scattered moderate convection is also noted ahead of the
front N of 24N and W of 74W. Another cold front extends across the
central and eastern Atlantic from 30N34W to 22N49W. Strong winds
are noted behind the front. Northerly swell is also noted, with 12
ft seas noted N of 26N between 38W to 49W. Seas up to 8 ft extend
as far south as 23N. A 1026 mb high is located in between the two
cold fronts near 34N58W with light to gentle anticyclonic winds in
the vicinity of the ridging. In the tropical Atlantic S of 20N,
fresh to locally strong trade winds are noted with 8-10 ft swell.
Light to gentle winds are observed off the coast of Africa with
5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh trade winds offshore Hispaniola,
including the Windward Passage will pulse to strong tonight.
Fresh to strong southerly winds will persist ahead of a cold front
that is currently moving off the south Florida coast. The front
will reach from 31N73W to the NW Bahamas and western Cuba by this
afternoon, and from 31N67W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba
by Sat morning. A reinforcing cold front will push off the NE
Florida coast this evening and slowly dissipate by Sat. This front
will bring will bring another round of fresh to strong winds
behind it through tonight. By Sat night, a third cold front will
move off the Florida coast and bring more fresh to strong winds
off the Florida coast through Sun.

For the forecast E of 65W, a low pressure system late this week
near the Azores will have a cold front extending from it
south-southwestward, bringing strong to near gale force winds to
the area north of 25N between 25W-50W through tonight. These winds
will continue to spread eastward through weekend. Wave heights
are forecast to build to the range of 10-17 ft over the area
affected by these winds.

$$
AReinhart
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