[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250431
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Mar 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between high pressure across
the western Atlantic and lower pressure over South America will
once again produce a pulse winds to gale-force near the coast of
Colombia tonight. Wave heights with these winds are forecast to
reach 12 ft. These conditions will gradually improve afterwards
and through the weekend as the gradient relaxes. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea Bissau
Leone near 11N15W to 06N17W. The ITCZ begins from 02N19W to 02S27W
to 01S41W to the Brazilian coast near 02SN44.5W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N
between 12W and 20W, and from 06S to 03N between 20W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...A cold front extends from near Bonita Springs,
Florida, to just west of Cancun, Mexico. Deep moisture IS along
and behind the front across Florida and along and ahead of the
front across the Gulf and the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection extends within about 90 nm NW
of the cold front from the Yucatan Channel to SW Florida. Behind
the front, a 1020 mb high pressure has settled across the W Gulf
near 23N96.5W, and offshore of Mexico. A secondary cold front,
void of precipitation, is noted from the central Louisiana coast
to South Padre Island, Texas. A surge of fresh to locally strong
NW winds is noted behind this front, mainly N of 27N, where seas
are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere in the Gulf, behind the main front, mainly
moderate to fresh NW to N winds dominate, except for fresh to
strong NNE winds offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas have built 5 to 8 ft there. Ahead of
the front in the SE Gulf, winds are gentle to moderate.

As for the forecast, the cold front will continue to move across
the SE Gulf and the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight, exiting
the Gulf waters by around sunrise. Winds will diminish
thereafter. Showers and thunderstorms will continue along the
frontal boundary tonight. The weaker cold front in the NW Gulf
will move mainly across the northern waters, reaching the NE Gulf
by Fri. It will exit the basin by Fri night. Fresh to strong SW
winds will develop ahead of the front. Mainly fresh NW winds will
follow the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia.

Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, which is
leading to subsidence and mostly dry conditions. Mainly fresh
winds dominate the basin, with strong winds in the south-central
Caribbean and moderate winds in the NW basin. Winds in the Gulf
of Honduras have diminished ahead of an approaching cold front
across the Yucatan. Wave heights are in the 8 to 11 ft range in
the south-central and SW Caribbean, 5 to 7 ft in the north-
central and eastern basin, and 3 to 5 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will sustain
pulsing winds to gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight.
Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the east and central
Caribbean through tonight, then the aerial extent of these winds
will diminish on Fri, with an area of fresh to strong trades
persisting over the south-central Caribbean into the upcoming
weekend. A cold front is expected to move into the NW Caribbean
tonight, bringing fresh to locally strong winds behind it across
the Yucatan Channel and Gulf of Honduras through Fri. The front
will gradually dissipate by Sat. Fresh trade winds, along with
large trade-wind swell, across the Tropical Atlantic forecast
zones will persist through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front moved off the NE Florida coast this afternoon, and
currently extends from 31N78.5W to near Vero Beach, Florida.
Ahead of it, fresh to strong SW winds are occurring N of 27N and W
of 73W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm E of the front.
A 1027 mb high pressure nearly stationary just E of Bermuda is
dominate most of the remainder of the waters to the W of 50W,
leading to anticyclonic winds of gentle to moderate speeds for
areas N of 23N. To the south, moderate to fresh trades dominate.
, with seas of 7 to 10 ft. Farther E, a cold front stretches
from 31N37W to 23N49W. To the north of the front, fresh to strong
NW winds dominate N of 26N, with mainly moderate winds to the
east. Scattered moderate convection is along the front, N of 28N.
Then, across the eastern North Atlantic S of 20N, moderate to
fresh trades once again dominate. Seas behind the front in the
central Atlantic range from 7 to 13 ft, with 8 to 10 ft seas in
the tropical Atlantic S of 15N. Elsewhere in the basin, 5 to 7 ft
seas dominate.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh trade winds offshore Hispaniola,
including the Windward Passage, will pulse to strong tonight.
Fresh to strong southerly winds offshore of Florida will persist
through Fri ahead of the cold front that is moving off the central
Florida coast. The front will reach from 31N75W to the NW Bahamas
and western Cuba by Fri morning, and from 31N66W to the central
Bahamas and central Cuba by Sat morning. At this time, a
reinforcing cold front will extend from 31N75W to near West Palm
Beach, Florida. This will bring another round of fresh to strong
winds behind it. Afterward, a strengthening low pressure off the
Carolina coast should prolong these winds through Sun.

For the forecast E of 65W, a low pressure system late this week
near the Azores will have a cold front extending from it
south-southwestward, bringing strong to near gale force winds to
the area north of 25N between 25W-50W, tonight through Fri night,
spreading eastward through weekend. Wave heights are forecast to
build to the range of 10-17 ft over the area affected by these
winds.

$$
Stripling
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net