[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Mar 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator
to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery,
weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 05N14W, where latest scatterometer data indicates
that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 00N19W to
03S28W to 02S33W and to the Brazil coast near 00SN46W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 02S to 05S
between 24W-28W and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 18W-22W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03S to 08S between 30W-35W,
within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 34W-36W and from 00N
to 03N between 42W-46W. Similar convection is from 01N to 04N
between 48W and the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The earlier cold front that moved across the Gulf has become
stationary from western Cuba to the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Fresh to strong north winds are within 90 to 120 nm to its
northwest along with wave heights to 8 ft near and in the
Yucatan Channel. A secondary cold front, void of precipitation,
extends from Apalachicola, Florida to the central Gulf near
25N89W. Mainly fresh northwest winds are behind this front to 90W
along with wave heights of 3-5 ft. A 1023 mb high pressure
center is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche. Its associated
anticyclonic flow is producing moderate southwest winds east of
northern Mexico to near 95W, gentle to moderate north winds in
the eastern Bay of Campeche and gentle winds elsewhere west of
92W, except for light and variable winds in the southwest part of
the Bay of Campeche. Wave heights are in the range of 3-5 ft
across the basin, except near the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, conditions in the extreme southeastern Gulf
and near the Yucatan Channel will diminish through late tonight.
The secondary cold front will reach the Straits of Florida and
the extreme southeastern Gulf early on Sat. Winds will become
gentle to moderate over the eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, which is
leading to subsidence and mostly dry conditions over the central
and easter Caribbean, with fresh to strong trade winds as
depicted in the latest ASCAT data passes. Isolated brief showers
moving westward with the trade wind flow are possible over
some areas of the basin north of about 12N and east of 72W and
north of 13N between 72W-81W. The recent Gulf of Mexico cold
front has become stationary from western Cuba to 20N85W and to
the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds
are behind the front in and near the Yucatan Channel and western
Gulf of Honduras. Wave heights of up to 8 ft are in the Yucatan
Channel and south of there to near 19N86W. Wave heights of 8-10
ft are in the south- central and SW Caribbean, with the highest
near northwest Colombia. Buoy data and latest altimeter data
passes also show wave heights of 7-9 ft over the north-central
and eastern basin and 4-6 ft seas in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will
gradually dissipate over central Cuba and eastern Honduras by
Sun. A high pressure progressing eastward across the NE Gulf of
Mexico will cause NE trades to become fresh to strong over the N
central Caribbean, S of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Moderate
to fresh winds across the eastern and central Caribbean will
decrease further to moderate by Sat afternoon. Fresh to locally
strong trades over the south-central Caribbean north of Colombia
will persist through early next week. Fresh trade winds along
with larger trade-wind swell will remain over the Atlantic waters
east of the Lesser Antilles through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed from near 30N73W to the central
Bahamas and to western Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are within 180 nm ahead of it north of 28N. Fresh south to
southwest winds are ahead of the front to near 65W and north
of 27N, while moderate to fresh northwest winds are behind it.
Farther east, another cold front extends across the central and
eastern Atlantic from near 31N30W to 25N37W and to 21N48W. A
post-frontal trough extends from near 30N32W to 24N44W. Strong
winds are noted behind the front, north of 25N. High pressure of
1023 mb is north of the area near 33N53W, with a ridge extending
southwestward to the Greater Antilles. The associated gradient is
maintaining mainly moderate anticyclonic flow between 40W-57W.
Fresh to strong trade winds are present west of 50W to the Lesser
Antilles. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere. Rough
seas are noted north of 20N and between 55W and 30W, as well as
south of 20N and west of 53W to the Lesser Antilles. Wave heights
of 6-8 ft are present elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front that is along the
position from near 30N73W to the central Bahamas and to western
Cuba will steadily progress eastward through Sat. Winds east
and west of the front will shift eastward into early Sat. This
should also allow fresh southeast winds offshore north of
Hispaniola to diminish to moderate speeds by early on Sat.
Another cold front will move off the southeastern U.S.
coast tonight. In response, winds off the northern and central
Florida coast will become fresh to strong late tonight, and
continue into Sun afternoon. High pressure exiting the Florida
coast early next should bring improving marine conditions.

For the forecast E of 65W, a low pressure system late this week
near the Azores will have a cold front extending from it
south-southwestward, bringing strong to near gale force winds to
the area north of 25N between 25W-50W through tonight. These
winds will continue to spread eastward through the weekend. Wave
heights are forecast to build to the range of 10-17 ft over the
area affected by these winds.

$$
Aguirre
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