[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192236
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Mar 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W to 01S40W to 02N50W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
01N to 05N between 09W and 18W, and from 01N to 04N between 40W
and the coast of Brazil.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A slow moving cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to the
central Bay of Campeche. A wide band of shower, with embedded
thunderstorms is related to the front. Low level clouds are noted
against the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains. Fresh
to strong winds are observed in the wake of the front but mainly
over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area with seas of 5-7 ft.
E of the front gentle southerly winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall over
the SE Gulf into Mon, then lift north as a week warm front into
Tue. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast later Tue.
Ahead of the front, widespread strong southerly winds can be
expected for the start of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent scatterometer data indicate strong to near gale
force winds off the coast of Colombia, with fresh to strong
trade winds across the remainder of the central Caribbean,
including the waters just S of Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh
trade winds dominates the rest of the basin. Similar wind speeds
are noted E of the Lesser Antilles with seas of 8-9 ft in E swell.
Seas of 6-8 ft are in the eastern and central Caribbean, with
higher seas of 8-11 ft occurring off NW Colombia. Seas of 4-6 ft
are elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where seas of 1-3 ft
prevail.

Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
are moving across the area producing isolated to scattered
passing showers. Visible satellite imagery show the streamers
downwind of the Lesser Antilles. Convection is flared up over the
Gulf of Honduras, parts of Honduras and southern Belize. A short-
wave trough extending over the Yucatan peninsula is helping to
induce this convective activity that is also affecting parts of
the Guatemala/Belize border.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support mainly
fresh trade winds along with large trade-wind swell across the
Tropical Atlantic forecast zones through the forecast period. Fresh
to strong winds will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean
during this time. Winds are likely to pulse to near gale force
tonight, then again Sun night offshore Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates most of the Atlantic forecast waters. The
main center of 1026 mb is located SW of the Azores near 33N33W.
Another high pressure of 1025 mb is situated south of Bermuda
near 29N65W and extends a ridge across the Bahamas and SE Florida.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted along the southern
periphery of the ridge, including the offshore waters of Hispaniola.
Farther E, a surface trough crosses between the Madeira and the
Canary Islands. Mainly patches of low level clouds, with possible
showers, are noted across the Atlantic forecast waters.
Northerly swell has propagated into the waters north of 25N
between 25W and 50W, with seas peaking near 16 ft near 31N31W.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh winds will pulse to strong nightly
into early next week offshore Hispaniola due to a tight pressure
gradient. A cold front will move off the FL coast this evening,
then move east across the region, becoming oriented along 25N
Tue. Some strong winds may follow this front along 30N.

$$
GR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net