[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200527
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Mar 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 17N12W, to 07N15W and 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W
to the Equator along 26W, to 01S30W 01S34W, to the Equator along
38W, to 01S44W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 05N southward between the monsoon trough/
ITCZ, and 47W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Florida Big Bend, to the south
central Gulf of Mexico, to 21N93W. A NW-to-SE oriented surface
trough is along 21N96W 20N93W. A surface trough extends from the
Yucatan Peninsula, into the east central Gulf of Mexico and
parallel to the cold front, to the coast of Florida near 29N83W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 90W
eastward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible
rainshowers, are from 28N southward from 90W westward.

A surface ridge passes through the border areas of east Texas and
Louisiana, to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W, and to the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The sea heights range from 3
feet to 5 feet in the ridge.

The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet between the surface
trough and the surface ridge. The sea heights range from 1 foot to
3 feet from the surface trough eastward. Fresh to strong winds
are in the western two-thirds of the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle
southerly wind speeds are to the east of the cold front.

A slowly-moving cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to
the Bay of Campeche. The front will stall in the SE Gulf of Mexico
into Mon, then move northward as a week warm front into Tue.
Another cold front will move off the Texas coast later Tue.
Widespread strong southerly winds can be expected for the start
of next week, to the east of the cold front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is the middle of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the
southern half of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Strong to near gale-force winds are within 180 nm of the coast of
Colombia between 73W and 77W. Fresh trade winds cover the remainder
of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11
feet off NW Colombia, and 7 feet to 9 feet elsewhere between 70W
and 80W from Hispaniola southward. The sea heights range from 4
feet to 6 feet from 80W westward. The sea heights range from 6
feet to 8 feet, in the remainder of the eastern and central
sections of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 1 foot
to 3 feet in the lee of Cuba.

Patches of low level moisture, that are embedded in the trade
wind flow, are moving through the area, and producing isolated to
scattered passing rainshowers.

High pressure to the north of the area will support mainly fresh
trade winds, and large trade wind swell, in the Tropical Atlantic
Ocean forecast zones, through the forecast period. Fresh to
strong winds will prevail in the central and eastern Caribbean Sea
during this time. The wind speeds will pulse to near gale force
this evening offshore Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean. One 1026
mb high pressure center is near 31N31W. A second 1026 mb high
pressure center is near 31N60W. The sea heights range from 8 feet
to 15 feet from 20N northward between 30W and 45W, and from 8 feet
to 15 feet from 24N northward from 30W eastward. The sea heights
range from 8 feet to 9 feet from 20N southward between 30W and
60W, and from 10N to 20N from 30W eastward. The sea heights range
from 6 feet to 8 feet elsewhere, from 10N southward from 30W
eastward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 20N
northward from 60W westward.

Moderate to fresh
easterly winds are noted along the southern periphery of the
ridge, including the offshore waters of Hispaniola. Farther E, a
surface trough crosses between the Madeira and the Canary Islands.
Mainly patches of low level clouds, with possible showers, are
noted across the Atlantic forecast waters. Northerly swell has
propagated into the waters north of 25N between 25W and 50W, with
seas peaking near 16 ft near 31N31W.

Fresh winds will pulse to strong, nightly, into early next week
offshore Hispaniola. A cold front will move off the FL coast
tonight, then move eastward across the region, becoming oriented
along 25N Tue. Strong winds may follow this front along 30N.

$$
MT
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