[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191658
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Mar 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to 01S26W to
01S40W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 02N to 07N
between 10W and 17W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the ITCZ from 03S to 04N between 41W and the coast of
Brazil.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Panama City, Florida to the SW Gulf
where it becomes stationary to the Bay of Campeche. A line of
thunderstorms is within 120 nm behind the front, extending from
Panama City to the W Gulf near 24N96W. Similar convection is also
noted within 60 nm ahead of the front, north of 25N. Fresh to
strong NE winds are noted west of the front, transitioning to NW
winds over the far SW Gulf. A prefrontal trough is 90 nm ahead of
the front, allowing for moderate SE winds in the SE Gulf,
transitioning to gentle NE winds behind the trough. Elsewhere east
of the boundaries, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in
the 4-7 ft range west of the front and 1-3 ft east of the front.

For the forecast, the cold front will drift E today, stall
tonight, then gradually dissipate as it lifts N into Mon. Fresh
to locally strong NW winds are expected to continue behind the
front in the western Gulf today, with strong southerly winds
expected for the start of next week in advance of the next cold
front. This front is likely to enter the NW Gulf Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep-layer dry air is maintaining generally fair weather
conditions over the Caribbean Sea. Strong to near gale force
winds prevail over the south central Caribbean, while fresh to
strong winds are noted elsewhere over the central and eastern
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the western
Caribbean. Seas are in the 9-12 ft range over the south central
Caribbean and 5-8 ft over the remainder of the central and
eastern Caribbean. Over the western Caribbean, seas are in the
4-7 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
mainly fresh trade winds along with large trade- wind swell
across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones through the forecast
period. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central and
eastern Caribbean during this time. Winds may pulse to near gales
each night offshore Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough north of the region of responsibility is
allowing for moderate to fresh southerly winds in the W of 76W,
and over the southern Bahamas where winds transition to southeasterly.
Fresh SE winds are also over the waters north of the Caribbean
Islands to 25N, with locally strong winds north of Hispaniola and
the Windward Passage. Farther east, high pressure dominates the
basin allowing for gentle to moderate winds north of 22N. Fresh to
strong winds prevail south of 22N. Seas of 4-6 ft are noted north
of 22N and west of 50W. South of 22N, seas are in the 7-9 ft
range, reaching 10 ft east of the windward islands. Northerly
swell has propagated into the waters north of 25N between 25W and
50W, with seas peaking near 15 ft near 31N31W.

For the forecast W of 65W, the ridge of high pressure across the
area will support the pulsing of fresh to strong winds north of
Hispaniola tonight. The ridge will start to retreat eastward
today, enabling a cold front to move off the coast of Florida.
The front will move eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the
Florida Straits by Mon.

$$
Mora
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