[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180544
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Mar 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough exits the African coast near the Guinea-Sierra
Leone border to 02N22W. An ITCZ extends from EQ22W to NE of Sao
Luis, Brazil at 02S43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 05S to 04N between 10W and 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward from S Florida across the central
Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. This feature is supporting southerly
moderate to fresh winds along with 4 to 6 ft seas over the W and
central Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 2 to
4 ft prevail for the E Gulf.

For the forecast, a cold front will move off the Texas coast Fri
morning, then move E across the Gulf through the weekend, before
dissipating in the far SE Gulf Mon. Fresh to locally strong NW
winds are expected behind this front in the W Gulf, with fresh S
winds ahead of it over the N Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A NE to ENE trade-wind pattern continues across the entire
Caribbean Sea. Patchy trade-wind showers are seen near E Cuba and
Jamaica. Latest satellite scatterometer and altimetery data
indicate fresh to strong trade winds with seas of 8 to 10 ft over
the S central basin, N of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades and
seas at 6 to 8 ft are present for the N central, E and SW basin.
Mainly moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest
of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will support fresh
to occasionally strong trade winds along with large trade-wind
swell across the Tropical Atlantic waters near the Lesser Antilles
thru early next week. Fresh to strong winds will also prevail
across the central and E Caribbean during this time. Fresh to
strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras nightly
through Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from well SW of Bermuda across 31N75W
to near Melbourne, Florida. Patchy showers are evident near the
front N of 29N between 74W and 78W. At the central Atlantic, a
cold front stretches southwestward from SW of the Azores across
31N36W to 27N58W, then turns northwestward as a stationary front
to S of Bermuda at 31N64W. Scattered showers are occurring near
and up to 150 nm S of the cold front, near and up to 80 nm NE of
the stationary front. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at 8 to 10 ft in
trade-wind swell are found from 05N to 22N between 40W and
62W/Lesser Antilles. Moderate NE trades with seas of 9 to 11 ft in
northerly swell are noted near the Canary Islands N of 20N
between the Sahara-S Morocco coast and 20W. Farther SW, moderate
with locally fresh NE trades and seas at 7 to 9 ft are present
from 06N to 20N between 20W and 40W. Light to gentle winds and
seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, a ridge of high pressure centered
across the area will support pulsing of fresh to strong winds
N of Hispaniola through the weekend. As the ridge retreats
eastward, a cold front will move off the coast of Florida Sat,
reaching from near Bermuda to Florida Straits by Mon.

$$

Chan
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