[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171705
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Mar 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1655 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to the African continues. The ITCZ
extends from 03N11W to TO 01S25W to 01N38W. A surface trough is
found from 05N40W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 05S to 05N between 10W and the
coast of NE Brazil near 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends across south Florida to near
Dry Tortugas and no significant convection is associated with this
feature. A broad ridge over the SE United States dominates most of
the Gulf of Mexico, permitting fairly tranquil weather conditions.
The pressure gradient as the result of the strong ridge and a
strengthening low pressure over northern Texas allows for fresh to
locally strong SE winds over the NW Gulf. This was recently
confirmed by a scatterometer satellite pass. The rest of the Gulf
enjoys gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. Seas of 2-4 ft are
present in the western Gulf, while seas of 1-3 ft are noted
elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will stall and
dissipate by tonight. Another cold front will move off the Texas
coast Fri, then move E through the Gulf over the weekend, before
dissipating in the far SE Gulf Mon. Fresh NW winds are expected
behind this front, with fresh S winds ahead of it over the
northern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail across the Caribbean
Sea as an expansive subtropical ridge dominates the region. The
pressure gradient as the result of the strong ridge and lower
pressures over northern South America is causing fresh to strong
trades across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. The
strongest winds are occurring off NW Colombia and southern
Hispaniola. Seas of 6-10 ft are found in the eastern and central
Caribbean, with the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia.
Moderate or weaker trades and seas of 2-6 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh
to occasionally strong trade winds along with large trade-wind
swell across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones through the
forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will also prevail across
the central Caribbean during this time. Fresh to strong E to SE
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras nightly into Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N76W to central Florida and a surface
trough is found about 60 nm ahead of the front. A line of showers
is observed on satellite imagery from the NW Bahamas to near 31N
near the trough axis. Fresh to strong southerly winds are noted
ahead of the front to 72W and N of 28N. Fresh to locally strong
trades are also present in the waters of offshore Hispaniola and
SE Bahamas. Farther east, a weak cold front extends from 31N45W to
27N55W to 29N63W, where it transitions into a warm front that
continues northwestward into a extratropical storm over the
Eastern Seaboard. A few shallow showers are seen near the frontal
boundary.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive
1034 high pressure system near the Azores that is promoting fairly
tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient as the result
of the subtropical ridge and lower pressures over the deep tropics
result in fresh to locally strong NE-E winds, mainly S of 20N and
W of 30W. Seas in this region are 8-11 ft. Fresh to locally strong
N-NE winds are found E of 22W, with the strongest winds occurring
offshore Morocco. Seas in the described region are 8-14 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-8 ft are
prevalent.

For the forecast W of 65W, a ridge of high pressure across the
area will support pulsing of fresh to strong winds north of
Hispaniola into the weekend. As the ridge retreats eastward, a
cold front will move off the coast of Florida this weekend, then
reach a Bermuda to Florida Straits line by Mon.

$$
DELGADO
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