[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180816
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Mar 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the African coast near 10N15W to 03N17W.
The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 03S40W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted south of 05N between 13W and
50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is centered over Florida. Moderate to fresh
southerly return flow prevails across much of the western Gulf,
with locally stronger winds. Seas over this area are in the 4-6 ft
range. Over the eastern Gulf, gentle to moderate southerly return
flow and seas of 1-2 ft prevail.

For the forecast, a cold front will move off the Texas coast this
morning, then move E through the Gulf through the weekend, before
dissipating in the far SE Gulf Mon. Fresh to locally strong NW
winds are expected behind the front in the western Gulf, with
fresh S winds ahead of it over the northern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail across the central and eastern
Caribbean, as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the
south central Caribbean and 6-8 ft elsewhere over the remainder of
the central and eastern Caribbean. Over the western Caribbean,
seas are in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to occasionally strong trade winds along with large trade-
wind swell across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones through the
forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will also prevail across
the central and eastern Caribbean during this time. Fresh to
strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight
and Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front is over the NW waters from 31N75W
to central Florida. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N33W
to 26N57W. High pressure is centered north of the area over the
central Atlantic, with associated ridge extending SW to the
northern Bahamas. The pressure gradient between this high
pressure center and the equatorial trough is supporting fresh to
strong trade- winds south of 20N between 40W and 65W. Fresh to
strong winds are also pulsing north of Hispaniola. Gentle to
moderate winds are elsewhere north of 20N, with moderate to fresh
winds south of 20N. Tradewind swell is supporting seas of 7-8 ft
south of 20N and east of 40W, and 8-10 ft south of 20N and west of
40W. Seas of 4-7 ft are over the open waters north of 20N and west
of 40W, with seas of 6-8 ft north of 20N and east of 40W.

For the forecast W of 65W, a ridge of high pressure extending
across the area will support pulsing of fresh to strong winds
north of Hispaniola through the weekend. As the ridge retreats
eastward, a cold front will move off the coast of Florida Sat,
reaching from near Bermuda to the Florida Straits by Mon.

$$
AL
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