[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151227
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Mar 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Africa
near the border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau at 12N16W to 06N18W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of the
monsoon trough, S of 06N between 10W and 16W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N18W through 02N30W to E of Belem, Brazil near 01S46W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring near the ITCZ from 01S
to 03N between 20W and 40W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 01S to 03N between 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches southwestward from near New Orleans across
the far NW Gulf through the Texas coast just S of Corpus Christi.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the front are
evident over the N central Gulf, including New Orleans. Scattered
showers are seen farther E over the NE Gulf and N Florida.

Westerly fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are
present over the NW Gulf, while moderate to fresh southerly winds
and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found across the NE Gulf. A surface
ridge extends from S Florida across the S central Gulf to the Bay
of Campeche. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh
southerly return flow along with 4 to 6 ft seas over the S Gulf.

In the forecast, showers and thunderstorms related to the cold
front can be seen along and S of the Texas and Louisiana coast
this morning. This front will progress southeastward and reach
from the Florida Big Band area to the eastern Bay of Campeche
late this evening, then dissipate on Wed. Fresh to strong
southerly winds and inclement weather will occur across the NE
Gulf ahead of this front from this afternoon thru tonight.
Moderate to fresh return flow will set up across the W Gulf Thu
evening ahead of the next cold front to enter the NW Gulf Fri
morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tight pressure gradient between a 1033 mb Bermuda High near
37N57W and a 1008 mb Colombian Low is sustaining a NE to E trade-
wind flow across the basin. Convergent trades are triggering
scattered showers across the NE Caribbean Basin, including the
Leeward Islands. Strong to near- gale trades along with 7 to 10
ft seas are noted over the central and E Caribbean. Moderate to
fresh trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are seen over the W Caribbean.

In the forecast, the Bermuda High moving eastward over the NW
Atlc will sustain fresh to strong trade winds along with large
trade- wind swell across the Tropical Atlantic and central
Caribbean through early this weekend. Trades N of Colombia will
reach strong to near-gale thru Fri, especially during nighttime.
Expect fresh to locally strong E to SE winds off Honduras Thu
evening through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends from 31N57W west-
southwestward across the NW Bahamas to the Strait of Florida.
Scattered showers are occurring near and up to 250 nm N of the
front, including S Florida. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong NNE to ENE trades along with seas at 8 to 12 ft
are present across the central and E Atlantic from the Equator to
24N between 26W and 50W, and farther SW from the Equator to 23N
between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. Over the NE Atlantic, strong
to near-gale N winds and seas of 10 to 14 ft are evident near the
Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds along with
seas of 5 to 8 ft are prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will continue
to lift northward today and eventually dissipate late this
evening. Moderate to fresh winds and rough seas will persist near
and up to 180 nm N of this front through this evening, then slowly
subside during mid week. Large easterly tradewind swell will
persist S of 23N and E of 70W through Wed evening before gradually
subsiding. Looking ahead, a deepening low pressure off the
Carolina coast is going to cause fresh southerly winds N and NE of
the Bahamas from late Wed night through Thu afternoon.

$$

Chan
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