[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Mar 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ then extends from 04N18W to the equator
at 28W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate
convection, associated with the monsoon trough, is from 01N to 08N
east of 17W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted north of the ITCZ between 37W and 50W. The latest
scatterometer data indicates strong to near-gale force winds in
the strongest convection.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 1500 UTC, a cold front is analyzed from near Morgan City, LA
at 29N91W to 27N95W to the coast of Mexico near 25N97W. A quick
moving outflow boundary ahead of the front is analyzed from the
Florida-Louisiana border at 30N88W to 27N91W to 26N93W to 27N94W.
Scattered moderate convection leads these features in the NE Gulf
north of 26.5N between 84W and 88W. An additional area of
scattered moderate convection is noted in the central Gulf from
23N to 26N between 89W and 91W. Winds are near-gale force in
the strongest areas of convection, with higher gusts possible. According
to recent surface reports, fresh to strong NW winds are occurring
behind the cold front in the northwest Gulf, with seas of 3-6 ft.
In the northeast Gulf, ahead of the outflow boundary and cold
front, fresh to strong SE winds are occurring with 3-6 ft seas. In
the southeast Gulf, gentle to moderate SE winds are noted with
3-5 ft seas. In the south-central Gulf and Bay of Campeche, winds
are mainly gentle and seas are 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will progress southeastward and
reach from the Florida Big Bend area to the eastern Bay of
Campeche late this evening, then dissipate on Wed. Fresh to strong
southerly winds and inclement weather will continue across the NE
Gulf ahead of this front thru tonight. Moderate to fresh return
flow will set up across the W Gulf Thu evening ahead of the next
cold front to enter the NW Gulf Fri morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tight pressure gradient between high pressure north of the
area and the Colombian Low is sustaining fresh to strong trades
across the central Caribbean. In this area, seas are 6-9 ft
according to the latest satellite altimeter data. In the E
Caribbean, fresh trades are north of 14N with mainly moderate
trades south of 14N. Seas are also 6-9 ft in the E Caribbean.
Finally, in the W Caribbean, a more relaxed pressure gradient
supports moderate trades with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, a strong Bermuda High moving eastward over the
NW Atlc will sustain fresh to strong trade winds along with large
trade-wind swell across the Tropical Atlantic and central
Caribbean through this weekend. Strong to near gale trades will
prevail N of Colombia today, then fresh to strong winds will pulse
each night through the forecast period. Expect fresh to strong E
to SE winds off Honduras Thu evening through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the area at 31N60W, continuing to
27N66W, then terminating over the Bahamas near 26N78W. Fresh to
locally strong NE winds are occurring north of the boundary
between 73W and the N Bahamas, according to the latest
scatterometer data. Scattered showers are possible along the
boundary.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by fresh to
strong trades along the southern flank of 1032 mb high pressure
near 33N42W. This pattern is supporting widespread 8-11 ft seas in
E swell, which was captured well on satellite altimeter passes
from earlier this morning. In the E Atlantic, north of Cabo Verde
and east of 28W, strong N winds are noted with seas of 11-16 ft
in N swell.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will lift
northward today and eventually dissipate this evening. Moderate to
fresh winds and rough seas will persist near and up to 180 nm N
of this front through this evening, then slowly subside during mid
week. Large easterly tradewind swell will persist S of 23N and E
of 70W through Wed evening before gradually subsiding. Looking
ahead, a deepening low pressure off the Carolina coast is going to
cause fresh southerly winds N and NE of the Bahamas from late Wed
night through Thu afternoon.

$$
Mahoney
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