[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150455
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Mar 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Africa
near the border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to
07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to the coast of Brazil
near 01S48W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is occurring east of 12W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 01S-02N west of 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 1034 mb Bermuda High near 37N62W
southwestward across N Florida and along the N Gulf coast. This
pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh E to SE return
flow in the central and E Gulf seas in the 4-6 ft range.
Isolated showers are ongoing in N Gulf.

In the forecast, the strong ridge of high pressure extending
from the western Atlc off the Carolinas to Texas will dominate
the Gulf through early Tue and support fresh winds across the E
Gulf tonight. The next cold front will enter the far NW Gulf
early Tue morning, and reach from the western Florida panhandle
to the eastern Bay of Campeche by late Tue then dissipate on
Wed. Fresh to strong S winds and active weather will occur
across the NE Gulf ahead of this front through Tue night.
Moderate to fresh return flow will set up across the W Gulf Thu
and Thu night ahead of the next cold front to enter the NW Gulf
Fri morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1034 mb Bermuda High near 37N62W
and a 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing strong to near gale NE to
E trades over the central and E Caribbean with moderate to fresh
winds over the W Caribbean. Seas are 6-8 ft in the central and E
Caribbean and 4-6 ft in the W Caribbean.  Isolated showers are
occurring over the Lesser Antilles and E Caribbean.

In the forecast, strong high pressure across the NW Atlc will
slide ENE through midweek. It will produce fresh to strong trade
winds with large trade-wind swell from the Tropical Atlantic to
the central Caribbean through Thu. Trades N of Colombia will
reach strong to near-gale thru Thu, especially during nighttime.
A cold front forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico will
stall and dissipate N of the Yucatan Channel Wed evening. Expect
fresh to strong E to SE winds off Honduras late Thu through Sat
evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N57W west-southwestward to
25N77W over the NW Bahamas.  Scattered showers are occurring
within 60 NM south and 120 NM north of the front.  ENE winds
north of the front are fresh, while the ESE winds south of the
front are moderate. Elsewhere, the tropical Atlantic is
dominated by a 1034 mb Bermuda High northwest of the front near
37N62W and a 1033 mb Azores High near 33N41W. The pressure
gradient between the Azores High and lower pressure along the
ITCZ is promoting fresh to strong NE trades west of 25W with
seas 8-10 ft.  East of 25W and north of 15N, winds are N to NE
fresh to strong. East of 25W and north of 22N, a large N swell
of 12-18 ft is present.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening stationary front
extends from 31N56W through the central Bahamas to central Cuba.
It will lift northward and eventually dissipate through late
Tue. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas persist along and
within 240 nm N of the front. Rough seas will linger through Tue
NE of the Bahamas, then slowly subside through mid week. Large
easterly tradewind swell will persist S of 23N and E of 70W
through late Wed before gradually subsiding. Looking ahead,
deepening low pressure will exit the SE U.S. coast late Thu
through Fri.

$$
Landsea
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