[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Mar 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Africa
near the border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 07N21W
to 03N28W. The ITCZ continues from 03N28W to the coast of Brazil
near 0N48W. Numerous heavy showers are in the Gulf of Guinea
extending westward to 16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1033 mb high pressure over the North
Carolina offshore waters SW across Florida and into the gulf.
This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh return flow
basin-wide with seas in the 4-5 ft range. Otherwise, isolated
showers are ongoing in portions of the west-central gulf.

A strong high pressure ridge extending from the western Atlc off
the Carolinas to Texas will dominate the Gulf through early Tue
and support fresh winds across the E and SE Gulf tonight. The next
cold front will enter the far NW Gulf early Tue morning, and
reach from the western Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of
Campeche by late Tue then dissipate by Wed. Fresh to strong S
winds and active weather will occur across the NE Gulf ahead of
this front Tue. Moderate to fresh return flow will set up across
the W Gulf Thu and Thu night ahead of the next cold front to enter
the NW Gulf Fri morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle to upper level dry air is across the region, supporting
mainly stable conditions. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade
wind flow is generating isolated showers across the Leeward
Islands, and Puerto Rico adjacent waters. The Bermuda and Azores
highs extend a ridge southward into the northern half of the
Caribbean, which continue to support fresh to strong winds across
the eastern, central and portions of the SW Caribbean with seas of
5-9 ft.

Strong high pressure across the W Atlc will slide ENE through Wed
to produce fresh to strong trade winds and large tradewind swell
from the Tropical Atlantic to the central Caribbean through Thu.
Expect fresh to strong trades with locally near-gale winds N of
Colombia thru Thu. A cold front forecast to move across the Gulf
of Mexico will stall and dissipate N of the Yucatan Channel Wed
evening. Expect fresh to strong E to SE winds off Honduras late
Thu and Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends from 31N57W through the
central Bahamas to central Cuba. Fresh to strong winds and rough
seas persist along and within 240 nm N of the front. Fresh to
strong NE to E winds are in the Straits of Florida and the
approaches of the Windward passage. The remainder Atlantic waters
E of the front are under the influence of the Azores high, which
continues to support a broad area of fresh to strong trades in
the tropical waters S of 24N with seas in the 8-11 ft range. Over
the far NE Atlantic E of 27W, where the pressure gradient is
greater, N to NE near gale force winds are being reported with
recent altimeter data reporting seas to 14 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will lift
northward and eventually dissipate through late Tue. Rough seas
will linger through Tue NE of the Bahamas, then slowly subside
through mid week. Large easterly tradewind swell will persist S of
23N and E of 70W through late Wed before subsiding. Looking
ahead, deepening low pressure will exit the SE U.S. coast late Thu
through Fri.

$$
Ramos
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