[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Mar 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Africa
near the border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 07N21W
to 03N28W. The ITCZ continues from 03N28W to the coast of Brazil
near 0N48W. Numerous heavy showers are in the Gulf of Guinea
extending westward to 16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1033 mb high pressure over the North
Carolina offshore waters SW across Florida and into the gulf.
This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh return flow
basin-wide with seas in the 4-5 ft range. Otherwise, isolated
showers are ongoing in portions of the west-central gulf.

A strong high pressure ridge extending from the western Atlc off
the Carolinas to Texas will dominate the Gulf through early Tue
and support fresh winds across the E and SE Gulf tonight. The next
cold front will enter the far NW Gulf early Tue morning, and
reach from the western Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of
Campeche by late Tue then dissipate by Wed. Fresh to strong S
winds and active weather will occur across the NE Gulf ahead of
this front Tue. Moderate to fresh return flow will set up across
the W Gulf Thu and Thu night ahead of the next cold front to enter
the NW Gulf Fri morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Middle to upper level dry air is across the region, supporting
mainly stable conditions. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade
wind flow is generating isolated showers across the Leeward
Islands, and Puerto Rico adjacent waters. The Bermuda and Azores
highs extend a ridge southward into the northern half of the
Caribbean, which continue to support fresh to strong winds across
the eastern, central and portions of the SW Caribbean with seas of
5-9 ft.

Strong high pressure across the W Atlc will slide ENE through Wed
to produce fresh to strong trade winds and large tradewind swell
from the Tropical Atlantic to the central Caribbean through Thu.
Expect fresh to strong trades with locally near-gale winds N of
Colombia thru Thu. A cold front forecast to move across the Gulf
of Mexico will stall and dissipate N of the Yucatan Channel Wed
evening. Expect fresh to strong E to SE winds off Honduras late
Thu and Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the western North Atlantic,
crossing 31N at 56W and extending to the north coast of central
Cuba near 22.5N79W. A surface ridge is north of the front,
extending from a 1033 mb high pressure near 34N69W to a 1031 mb
high pressure over Georgia. Recent ASCAT satellite data shows
strong NE winds within 180 nm northwest of the front, including
portions of the NW Bahamas. Seas are 9 to 13 ft in this area. Seas
of 8 ft or greater generally prevail within 240 nm NW of the front
and within 90 nm SE of the front.

Over the central Atlantic, a 1030 mb high pressure near 34N32W
extends a surface ridge west-southwestward to 27.5N60W. Gentle
anticyclonic winds and 5-7 ft seas are near the ridge axis. Over
the far northeast Atlantic, a 1002 mb gale force low pressure is
centered north of the area near 35N10W. A cold front associated
with this system extends from the coast of Western Sahara near
26N15W to 25N21W. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong to near gale
force NNW winds to the north of the front, from the Canary Islands
northward, and east of 24W. Seas of 12 to 22 ft are likely
occurring in this area. Farther south, fresh to strong trade winds
prevail across the tropical Atlantic with seas of 8-11 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, the weakening stationary front
extending from 31N56W to central Cuba will lift northward and
eventually dissipate later this evening. Fresh to strong winds and
rough seas persist along and within 240 nm N of the front. Rough
seas will linger through Tue NE of the Bahamas, then slowly
subside through mid week. Large easterly tradewind swell will
persist S of 23N and E of 70W through late Wed before subsiding.
Looking ahead, deepening low pressure will move across N Florida
and along the SE U.S. coast late Thu and Fri.

$$
Ramos
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