[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062339
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Mar 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A modest monsoon trough extends off the coast of Sierra Leone
near 07N13W to 04N19W. An ITCZ runs westward from EQ10W to EQ30W
to near Sao Luis, Brazil at 01S44W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted south of the monsoon trough between 10W to 15W. From 03S
to 01N, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
between 17W and 31W; numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is seen between 34W and the Brazilian coast.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridge extends from N Florida across the central Gulf to
S Mexico and continues to support moderate to fresh SE winds
with seas at 4 to 7 ft for much of the Gulf, except 7 to 9 ft
across the Florida Straits. A few showers are noted streaming
northwest across the Bay of Campeche south of 22N.

For the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf basin will support
fresh to strong winds, and seas to 8 ft, in the SE Gulf and Straits
of Florida tonight. The area of high pressure will shift eastward,
enabling the next cold front to move into the NW Gulf on Mon.
The front will shift eastward and stall from the Florida Panhandle
to the Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week, where it
will gradually dissipate. Fresh to strong winds will prevail west
of the front Mon and Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are producing patchy showers over the NW
basin, Jamaica, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
NE fresh to strong trades are generating 8 to 9 ft seas for the
S central basin, just N of Colombia. A surface low is analyzed
in the southwest Caribbean near 09N76W with convection noted
inland. Moderate to fresh ENE trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft
prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is
also analyzed south of the Cayman Islands with a few showers
noted in the vicinity of the trough axis.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean
through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will prevail
in the Windward Passage through Mon. Fresh to strong winds are
expected south of Hispaniola through early Tue. Moderate to fresh
trades, along with 8 to 9 ft seas in persistent northeast to
east swell, will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser
Antilles through at least Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches southwestward from NW of the Azores Islands
across 31N42W to 27N50W, then continues as a shear line across the
central Bahamas. Scattered showers are occurring near and up to
120 nm NW of this boundary. A surface trough over the State of
Amapa, Brazil is coupling with a mid-level low in the vicinity to
induce numerous moderate convection from 02S to 07N between 45W
and Amapa. Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds near and behind the cold front/shear
line are creating 10 to 12 ft seas over the SW Atlantic from 22N
to 28N between 61W and the NW Bahamas. Mostly fresh NE trades
with 7 to 9 ft-seas are present farther NE, N of 28N between 47W
and 61W. A 1029 mb high over the E central Atlantic near 30N29W
is promoting light to gentle winds with seas at 5 to 7 ft N of
27N between the NW African coast and 43W. Farther S, moderate to
fresh with locally strong NE trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft are
found from 05N to 22N between the central African coast and
Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas at 6
to 8 ft are evident near the Canary Islands N of 27N between the
Moroccan coast and 20W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7
ft prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will shift
eastward and gradually weaken the next couple of days. This will
decrease the fresh to strong easterly winds, and easterly swell,
over most of the forecast waters starting Monday. Moderate to
fresh southerly flow will prevail east of Florida Monday through
the end of the week.

$$
Torres
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