[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070420
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 04N17W to 02N23W. The ITCZ continues from 02N23W to 00N40W to
01S45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
occurring south of 05N between 11W-17W, and south of 03N between
17W-45W. Scattered showers are south of 06N between 45W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Patchy marine fog is prevalent over portions of the northwest
Gulf of Mexico off the Texas and Louisiana coasts. The gradient
between a 1034 mb Bermuda High, centered east of Bermuda, and
much lower pressure over Mexico, is inducing moderate to fresh
SE winds across most of the Gulf of Mexico. Recent ASCAT
satellite wind data show strong E winds over the Straits of
Florida, while gentle winds are noted over the NE corner of the
Gulf of Mexico. Strong E winds are likely occurring near the N
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 4-7 ft across most of
the basin, except up to 9 ft in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, patchy areas of dense marine fog will continue
for portions of the NW Gulf of Mexico shelf waters through this
morning. High pressure over the Gulf basin will support fresh to
strong winds and seas to 8 ft in the SE Gulf and Straits of
Florida early this morning. The area of high pressure will shift
eastward, enabling the next cold front to move into the NW Gulf
today. The front will shift eastward and stall from the Florida
Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week.
The front will gradually dissipate through Thu. Fresh to strong
winds will prevail west of the front today and Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

No major precipitation areas are noted over the basin. However,
isolated trade wind showers are seen from the northern Leeward
Islands to Puerto Rico, as well as near Haiti, and to the south
of eastern and central Cuba. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data
show fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean.
However, strong winds are likely occurring in the Windward
Passage, to the south of Hispaniola, near the coast of Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela. ASCAT shows mainly moderate E
winds in the western Caribbean, west of 78W. Buoys over the
eastern half of the Caribbean Sea are currently reporting seas
of 7 ft. Seas are likely averaging 6 to 8 ft across the eastern
and central Caribbean and 4-6 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean
through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will prevail
in the Windward Passage through tonight. Fresh to strong winds
are expected south of Hispaniola through early Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The weather is dominated by a 1034 mb high pressure centered
east of Bermuda near 34N58W. Surface ridging extends WSW from
the high to northern Florida, with mainly moderate anticyclonic
winds north of 29N and west of 65W. Recent ASCAT satellite wind
data show strong trades south of 26N and west of 65W, including
over the Straits of Florida, SE Bahamas and central Bahamas.
Seas of 8-12 ft are likely occurring in this area, east of the
Bahamas. NOAA buoy 41046 near 23.8N and 68.4W is reporting E
winds of 25 kt and significant wave heights of 11 ft.

Over the central Atlantic, a cold front stretches from 31N38.5W
to 27N51W. A shear line continues from 27N51W to 22N65W.
Isolated showers are within 180 nm either side of the cold front
and shear line. ASCAT shows strong NE winds within 210 nm
northwest of the shear line, where seas are likely 8-10 ft.
Gentle anticyclonic winds prevail north of 27.5N and east of the
cold front to 18W, due to surface ridging in the area. Seas of
4-6 ft are likely in the gentle wind area. Fresh to locally
strong trade winds are noted from about 06N-24N between Africa
and the Lesser Antilles, where seas are in the 7-10 ft range.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure over the western
Atlantic will shift eastward and gradually weaken the next
couple of days. This will diminish the strong easterly winds and
easterly swell over most of the forecast waters starting today.
Moderate to locally fresh winds are expected to continue through
midweek. Moderate to fresh southerly flow will prevail east of
Florida today through the end of the week.

$$
Hagen
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