[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Mar 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A modest monsoon trough extends off the coast of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 02N22W. An ITCZ runs westward from EQ25W to near
Sao Luis, Brazil at 02S45W. From 04S to 03W, scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted between 06W and 40W;
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen between
40W and the Brazilian coast.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough is triggering scattered showers over the E
central Gulf. Otherwise, a surface ridge extending from N Florida
across the central Gulf to S Mexico continues to support moderate
to fresh SE winds with seas at 4 to 7 ft for much of the Gulf,
except 7 to 9 ft across the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail over the Gulf basin
today. Fresh to strong winds with seas to 9 ft will prevail over
the SE Gulf tonight, including the Straits of Florida. Fresh
southerly return flow will develop over the NW Gulf tonight ahead
of the next cold front. The cold front is expected to move into
the NW Gulf on Mon and stall from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay
of Campeche through Wed night and dissipate by Thu. Fresh to
strong winds will prevail W of the front Tue and Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are producing patchy showers over the NW
basin, Jamaica, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
NE fresh to strong trades are generating 8 to 9-ft seas for the S
central basin, just N of Colombia. Moderate to fresh ENE trades
and seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will support fresh
to strong trade winds in the S central Caribbean through the
forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the
Windward Passage through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are
expected in the lee of Cuba through tonight and the Dominican
Republic through Mon night. Moderate to fresh trades, along with 8
to 9 ft seas in persistent NE to E swell, will continue to impact
the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through at least Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches southwestward from NW of the Azores Islands
across 31N44W to 28N50W, then continues as a shear line to the
central Bahamas. Scattered showers are occurring near and up to
120 nm NW of this boundary. A surface trough over the State of
Amapa, Brazil is coupling with a mid-level low in the vicinity to
induce numerous moderate convection from 02S to 04N between 45W
and Amapa. Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds near and behind the cold
front/shear line are creating 10 to 13-ft seas over the SW
Atlantic from 22N to 28N between 61W and the NW Bahamas. Mostly
fresh NE trades with 7 to 9 ft-seas are present farther NE, N of
28N between 47W and 61W. A 1029 mb high over the E central
Atlantic near 31N36W is promoting light to gentle winds with seas
at 5 to 7 ft N of 27N between the NW African coast and 43W.
Farther S, moderate to fresh with locally strong NE trades and
seas of 8 to 10 ft are found from 05N to 22N between the central
African coast and Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are evident near the Canary Islands N
of 27N between the Moroccan coast and 20W. Light to gentle winds
and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will continue to prevail
over the W Atlantic today. This will support fresh to strong
easterly winds over most of the forecast waters. Seas are
expected to peak near 13 ft E of the Bahamas through tonight.
Conditions will start to improve on Mon as the high pressure
shifts eastward and gradually weakens. Fresh southerly flow will
develop E of N Florida later today into the middle of week.

$$

Chan
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