[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Mar 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N14W to
02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to 00N33W to the coast of
Brazil near 02N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
04S to 03N between 14W and 40W. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted near the ITCZ along the Brazil coast from 02S
to 05N and W of 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between 1034 mb high pressure over the western
Atlantic near 35N69W and much lower pressure over Mexico is
producing moderate to fresh SE winds across most of the Gulf of
Mexico. However, fresh to strong E winds are occurring over the
Florida Straits and far SE Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 6-10 ft over
the Florida Straits and SE Gulf. Seas are 3-6 ft elsewhere. Patchy
fog has developed over the NW Gulf with visibility less than 2 nm
at times.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail over Gulf basin
through today. Patchy fog has developed across the NW Gulf and is
expected to continue through this morning. Fresh to strong winds
with seas to 9 ft will prevail over the SE Gulf tonight, including
the Straits of Florida. Fresh southerly return flow will develop
over the NW Gulf tonight ahead of the next cold front. The cold
front is expected to move into the NW Gulf on Mon and stall from
the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche through Wed night and
dissipate by Thu. Fresh to strong winds will prevail west of the
front Tue and Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite imagery and Puerto Rico radar show a few showers
between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and to the south of the Mona
Passage. No major precipitation areas are noted over the
remainder of the basin. Overnight scatterometer data showed
mainly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean, with
strong NE winds over the Windward Passage, near the coast of
Colombia and to the south of Hispaniola. Strong winds are also
likely occurring in the lee of Cuba. Seas of 5-7 are prevalent
across most of the Caribbean, but may be as high as 9 ft in the
Windward Passage and north of Colombia.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through
the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the
Windward Passage through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are
expected in the lee of Cuba through tonight and the Dominican
Republic through Mon night. Moderate to fresh trades, along with 8
to 9 ft seas in persistent northeast to east swell, will continue
to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through at least
Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong 1034 mb high pressure is N of the area near 36N66W. A
cold front extends over the central Atlantic from 31N47W to
28N52W. A shear line is analyzed from 28N52W to 23N67W. Scattered
moderate convection is along and within 150 nm NW of the shear
line and front. Overnight ASCAT satellite wind data showed strong
to near gale force NE to E winds over a large area, mainly west
of a line from 26N60W to the Windward Passage. These wind speeds
extend westward over the Bahamas and Florida Straits. To the north
of 28.5N, fresh anticyclonic winds prevail. Seas of 10-13 ft
prevail east of the Bahamas, within the strong to near- gale force
area, and 6-8 ft elsewhere west of 60W.

The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by 1028 mb high
pressure near 33N28W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
prevail north of 27N between 20W-48W, due to ridging from the
high pressure. To the south, a large area of fresh to strong
trades prevail S of 27N between the Cabo Verde Islands and 55W.
Strong to near gale force NE winds prevail off Morocco and through
the Canary Islands. Seas are generally 8-11 ft with an east swell
across these strong wind areas.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to extend over the
western Atlantic today. This will support fresh to strong easterly
winds over most of the forecast waters. Seas are also expected to
build to 13 ft east of the Bahamas through tonight. Conditions
will start to improve on Mon as the high pressure shifts eastward
and gradually weakens. Fresh southerly flow will develop east of
northern Florida Sun into the middle of next week. For the area
east of the Lesser Antilles to 55W, moderate to fresh trades and 8
to 9 ft seas, in persistent northeast to east swell, will
continue through at least Thu.

$$
AReinhart
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