[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Mar 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Africa near 05N10W to
05N17W to 04N19W where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues
to 0N33W to 0N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to
06N between 01W and 14W, and from 02S to 06N between 29W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging is across the Gulf, keeping tranquil conditions
in place. Gentle to moderate return flow covers the basin, where
wave heights are in the range of 1 to 3 ft.

As for the forecast, high pressure will prevail over the Gulf
basin. Gentle to moderate winds will increase to fresh to strong
over the SE Gulf tonight, including the Straits of Florida.
Moderate to fresh return flow will develop over the remainder
basin through Sun night. Otherwise, a cold front is expected to
move into the NW Gulf on Mon and reach from Alabama to the western
Gulf on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure centered about 330 nm NE of the northern Bahamas
tightens the pressure gradient in the Caribbean and supports
moderate to fresh trades over the eastern half of the basin and
fresh to strong NE winds in the south-central Caribbean as
indicated by recent scatterometer data. Seas of 5 to 6 ft dominate
this region of the basin, except for seas to 8 ft in the SW
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are
elsewhere west of 75W.

As for the forecast, building high pressure over the western
Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-
central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong
winds are also expected in the Windward Passage tonight through
Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are possible in the lee of Cuba
and the Dominican Republic Sat night through Sun night. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh trades along with persistent northeast to east
swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser
Antilles through at least Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface high pressure dominates across the SW N Atlantic waters
supporting moderate to fresh NE winds south of 28N along with seas
in the 5 to 6 ft range. Farther east, a former cold front has
stalled from 31N53W to 27N59W where a surface trough continues SW
towards NE Dominican Republic. The remainder Atlantic is under the
influence of the Azores high, which is anchored by two 1034 mb
centers of high pressure. This stronger pressure is supporting
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds E of 45W and across the
tropical Atlantic waters where seas range between 8 to 11 ft.

As for the forecast W of 65W, high pressure will build over the
western Atlantic during the upcoming weekend. This will lead to a
tight gradient which will bring fresh to strong easterly winds
over most of the forecast waters. Seas are also expected to build
to 12 ft east of the Bahamas by Sat night and continue through Sun
night. Conditions will improve on Mon as the high pressure shifts
eastward and gradually weakens. Fresh southerly flow will develop
east of northern Florida Sun into early next week.

$$
Ramos
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