[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Mar 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Africa near 05N10W to
05N17W to 04N19W where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues
to 0N33W to 0N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to
06N between 01W and 14W, and from 02S to 06N between 29W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging is across the Gulf, keeping tranquil conditions
in place. Gentle to moderate return flow covers the basin, where
wave heights are in the range of 1 to 3 ft.

As for the forecast, high pressure will prevail over the Gulf
basin. Gentle to moderate winds will increase to fresh to strong
over the SE Gulf tonight, including the Straits of Florida.
Moderate to fresh return flow will develop over the remainder
basin through Sun night. Otherwise, a cold front is expected to
move into the NW Gulf on Mon and reach from Alabama to the western
Gulf on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure centered about 330 nm NE of the northern Bahamas
tightens the pressure gradient in the Caribbean and supports
moderate to fresh trades over the eastern half of the basin and
fresh to strong NE winds in the south-central Caribbean as
indicated by recent scatterometer data. Seas of 5 to 6 ft dominate
this region of the basin, except for seas to 8 ft in the SW
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are
elsewhere west of 75W.

As for the forecast, building high pressure over the western
Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-
central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong
winds are also expected in the Windward Passage tonight through
Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are possible in the lee of Cuba
and the Dominican Republic Sat night through Sun night. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh trades along with persistent northeast to east
swell will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser
Antilles through at least Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed from near 31N53W to 28N57W. A surface
trough extends SW from the end of the front to the U.S. Virgin
Islands. High pressure is building behind the boundary, leaving
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and subsiding seas ranging
from 3 to 5 ft in its wake in the western Atlantic. A recent
scatterometer pass noted fresh S-SW winds within 90 nm ahead of
the front and north of 29N.

In the far eastern Atlantic, surface high pressure of 1032 mb is
centered just north of the area near 32N30W. A ridge extends from
this high center west-southwest to 27N50W. A tight gradient
between this high and relatively lower pressure to the south is
sustaining a large area of fresh to strong east winds south of
about 25N and east of 61W, including over the Lesser Antilles.
Wave heights with these winds are in the 8 to 11 ft range. In the
far northeast part of the area, strong northeast winds are over
and near the Canary Islands, and south of the Islands to 20N
between the coast of Africa and 25W.

As for the forecast W of 65W, the aforementioned cold front will
continue weakening over the central Atlantic today. Strong high
pressure will then build over the western Atlantic during the
upcoming weekend. This will lead to a tight gradient which will
bring fresh to strong easterly winds over most of the forecast
waters. Seas are also expected to build to 12 ft east of the
Bahamas by Sat night and continue through Sun night. Conditions
will improve on Mon as the high pressure shifts eastward and
gradually weakens. Fresh southerly flow will develop east of
northern Florida Sun into early next week.

$$
Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net