[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Mar 05 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from coastal Africa near 06N10W
to 06N16W to 04N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 01N30W and to below the equator at 40W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 01N to 05N between 28W-32W,
from 02S to 04N between 40W-50W and within 30 nm of line from
03N37W to 04N40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging is across the Gulf, keeping tranquil conditions
in place. Gentle to moderate return flow covers the basin, where
wave heights are relatively low, in the range of 1-3 ft.

As for the forecast, high pressure will continue across the
region. Gentle to moderate winds will increase to fresh to
strong speeds over the southeastern Gulf tonight, including the
Straits of Florida. Wave heights will range from 8-10 ft in the
southeastern gulf waters. Fresh southerly return flow will
develop over the NW Gulf through Sun night. A cold front is
expected to move into the NW Gulf on Mon, and reach from the
Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination of strong high pressure centered east of New
England with relatively lower pressure over the southern
Caribbean and South America supports a gradient that is
sustaining moderate to fresh northeast to east trades over the
eastern half of the basin, and fresh to strong northeast trades
in the south-central Caribbean, including the waters within 90 nm
of Colombia as were indicated by earlier ASCAT data. Wave
heights of 5-6 ft are over this part of the basin, except for
higher wave heights of 6-8 ft over the southwestern Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate northeast to east trades along with wave
heights of 3-5 ft are elsewhere west of 75W.

As for the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure
over the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade
winds in the south- central Caribbean through the forecast
period. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Windward
Passage tonight through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are
possible in the lee of Cuba and the Dominican Republic Sat night
through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades along with persistent
northeast to east swell will continue to impact the waters east
of the Lesser Antilles through at least Wed. Wave heights will
reach 8 or 9 ft with the strongest winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure is present over the western half of the southwestern
north Atlantic. The associated gradient is maintaining generally
moderate to fresh northeast winds south of 28N along with wave
heights of 5-6 ft. Farther east, a stationary front stretches
from near 31N54W southwest to 27N60W and to 24N64W, where it
transitions to a trough to just inland the north-central section
of Hispaniola. Another trough is analyzed from near 27N72W to
the coast of eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Areas of rain, with
embedded scattered showers and possible thunderstorms are along
and within 30-60 nm northwest of the front from 28N-31N.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 21N to 24N
between 68W-75W. Patches of rain, with embedded scattered showers
are from 24N to 28N and between 45W-72W. This activity is
shifting eastward.

To the east of the stationary front, the area is under the
dominance of a strong high center of 1032 mb that is north
of the discussion domain near 34N27W. The tight gradient
associated to this high center supports quite a large area of
fresh to strong northeast to east winds to the east of 54W
and south of 24N as highlighted in the Latest ASCAT data passes
over that part of the Atlantic. Wave heights with these winds are
in the range of 10-12 ft. The atmosphere is very dry and stable
over the eastern Atlantic as noted by the vast field of
stratocumulus visible in satellite imagery. Interestingly for
this time of year,an extensive area of African dust is being
observed over this same area of the Atlantic on the GOES-E
GeoColor imagery.

As for the forecast W of 65W, high pressure will build over the
western Atlantic during weekend. This will lead to a tight
gradient which will bring fresh to strong easterly winds over
most of the forecast waters. Wave heights are also expected to
build to 12 ft east of the Bahamas by Sat night and continue
through Sun night. Conditions will improve on Mon as the high
pressure shifts eastward and gradually weakens. Fresh southerly
flow will develop east of northern Florida Sun into early next
week.

$$
Aguirre
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