[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jun 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has been introduced along 16W and south of
15N based satellite imagery and Hovmoller diagram. The wave is
moving W at around 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough
axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W, south of 15N and moving
W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed from 06N-12N and between 30W and 37W. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development over the next few
days, and a tropical depression could form during the early to
middle part of next week as it approaches the Windward Islands.
The disturbance has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
during the next 48 hours, and a medium chance over the next 5
days.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 15N and
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N-12N and between 45W and 57W.
Enhanced rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands as the
tropical wave passes through the area Sunday and Sunday night.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic coast through the coast
of Senegal near 15N17W to 10N22W. The ITCZ extends from 10N22W to
07N32W, then from 07N34W to 07N47W and then from 07N51W to 06N57W.
Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N-10N and between
19W and 25W and similar convection from 05N-11N and between 39W
and 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak 1012 mb low pressure over the Florida panhandle and
divergence aloft is producing some showers and isolated thunderstorms
that reach the waters of the NE Gulf of Mexico. Another area of
low to mid-level convergence is causing a few showers over the
central Gulf waters. The rest of the Gulf enjoys fairly tranquil
weather conditions. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail
across the basin, except for moderate winds off the SE Texas and
NE Tamaulipas coasts. Seas of 1-3 ft are prevail across the Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak low to mid-level trough is producing a
few showers and thunderstorms over the central Gulf from 22N to
26N between 90W and 94W. The trough will shift west and weaken as
it approaches northeastern Mexico Sat night into Sun. A weak
trough will then develop from the MS coastal waters to the SW
Florida coastal waters late Sat through Mon. Otherwise, a weak
surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the weekend
and into early next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough enters the SW Caribbean Sea
through the coast of Costa Rica to northern Colombia. Abundant
tropical moisture and low-level convergence result in a large area
of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region,
affecting primarily the waters off Nicaragua and NW Colombia.
Fairly tranquil weather conditions are prevalent in the rest of
the basin. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict fresh to
locally strong trades in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Seas in
this region are 5-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted
in the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean, while light to
moderate winds are found in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 3-5 ft in
the north-central and eastern Caribbean and 1-3 ft in the NW
Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail
over the south-central Caribbean through late Sat night as the
Atlantic ridge remains centered across the central Atlantic near
40N. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will dominate. A strong
tropical wave is expected to reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters
early Tue, and move through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed and Wed
night. The wave will be accompanied by increasing winds and
building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front stretches from 31N73W to NE Florida and
scattered showers to isolated thunderstorms are seen south of
this boundary to 26N and W of 75W. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicate that strong to near gale-force winds are
occurring near the strongest storms. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds
are present N of the frontal boundary. Light to moderate S-SE
winds are noted in the rest of the area W of 60W. Seas are 3-6 ft
W of 60W.

A surface trough is evident along 57W, from 24N-28W. A few showers
are noted from 24N-30N and between 54W and 59W. The remainder of
the basin is dominated by a 1036 mb high pressure system near
41N43W, permitting tranquil weather conditions. The pressure
gradient between this system and lower pressures in the deep
tropics and NW Africa result in fresh to locally strong winds
south of a line from the Canary Islands to the Leeward Islands.
Seas in the area described are 6-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds
and seas of 4-6 ft are present in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front that extends from
31N73W to 29N78W and to northern Florida will dissipate Sat.
Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure will remain centered across the
central Atlantic near 40N. A strong tropical wave will reach near
60W late Tue evening, and pass to the south of the area as it
moves through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed and Wed night.

$$
Delgado
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