[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251129
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jun 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 17W/18W
from 02N to 16N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are east of the to inland the coast of Africa
from 06N to 12N. Isolated showers are along the wave axis from 06N
to 08N. Latest satellite imagery clearly shows a mid-level
cyclonic circulation out ahead of the wave near 08N22W. Broken to
overcast mostly low and mid-level clouds are noted with this
feature covering the area from 06N to 10N and between 20N-26W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring within 210 nm in
the SW and 120 nm in the NW quadrants of the cyclonic
circulation. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
elsewhere underneath the aforementioned clouds.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W from
02N to 15N, moving westward at 17 kt.  Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed ahead of the wave from
06N-12N between the wave and 39W. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development of this system over the next few days,
and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle
part of next week.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W from 02N
to 15N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Clusters of scattered
moderate strong convection are increasing ahead of this wave to
58W and from 06N-11N. Similar convection is within 240 nm east of
the wave from 09N to 12N. Enhanced rainfall and gusty winds are
possible over the Windward Islands as the tropical wave passes
through the area Sun and Sun night.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic coast through the coast
of Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 10N24W,
where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to
the ITCZ to 07N33W, then from 07N34W to 07N43W to 08N45W to
07N49W. It then extends from 07N51W to 06N57W. Aside from
convection associated to tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is seen within 30 nm south of the trough between
21W-24W, and within 30 nm of 06N18W to 04N22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from north-central Florida west-
northwestward to a weak 1012 mb low over the Florida panhandle.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the NE Gulf and over
the western part of the central Gulf, where a low to mid-level
trough is present. The rest of the Gulf is under fairly tranquil
weather conditions. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail
across the basin, except for moderate southeast to south winds
off the southeastern Texas and northeastern Tamaulipas coasts.
Seas of 1-3 ft are across the Gulf.

For the forecast, the weak low to mid-level trough over the
central Gulf will shift W and weaken as it approaches
northeastern Mexico tonight into Sun. A weak trough will then
develop from the MS coastal waters to the SW Florida coastal
waters by late this afternoon and linger through Mon. A low
pressure area could develop over the norther Gulf early next week.
It is expected to drift westward across the north- central or
northwestern Gulf, with any development being slow to occur.
Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
through the weekend and into early next week, supporting mainly
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends
into the southwestern Caribbean Sea from northern Costa Rica to
northwestern Colombia. Abundant tropical moisture combining with
low-level convergence is leading to numerous moderate to strong
cluster of moderate to strong convection over the southwest part
of the sea within 60 nm either side of a line from 10N75W
northwest to 13N80W and to 14N84W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 16N and west of 76W.
Overnight ASCAT satellite data passes revealed fresh to locally
strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea. Seas in
this region are 5-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are
over the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean, while
light to moderate winds are over the northwestern Caribbean. Seas
range from 3-5 ft in the north-central and eastern Caribbean, and
1-3 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the fresh to locally strong trade winds over
the south-central Caribbean will continue through late tonight.
as the Atlantic ridge remains centered across the central
Atlantic near 40N. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will
dominate. A strong tropical wave is expected to reach the Tropical
N Atlantic waters early Tue, and move through the eastern Caribbean
Sea Wed and Wed night. The wave will be accompanied by increasing
winds and building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is analyzed from near 31N73W to 29N79W and
to just east of northeastern Florida. An area of scattered
showers and thunderstorms is to the south of this boundary
from 25N to 28N and between 73W-79W. Some of this activity is
capable of producing strong to near gale-force winds. Moderate to
fresh northeast to east winds are north of the frontal boundary.
Light to moderate south-southeast winds are over the remainder
of the area west of about 60W along with seas of 3-6 ft.

A surface trough is along 57W from 25N-28W. This trough is
underneath an upper-level low that is identified on water vapor
imagery to be near 26N61W. Plenty of instability provided by
these features has resulted in scattered moderate convection
from 25N to 29N and between 56W-59W. The remainder of the basin
is dominated by a strong 1036 mb high pressure system that is
well north of the area near 41N43W. This feature is maintaining
rather tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between
this system and lower pressures in the deep tropics and NW Africa
is causing fresh to locally strong winds south of a line from the
Canary Islands to the Leeward Islands. Seas in the area described
are 6-9 ft. Moderate or lighter winds and seas of 4-6 ft are
present over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
will will weaken and dissipate today. Elsewhere, Atlantic high
pressure will remain centered across the central Atlantic near
40N. A strong tropical wave will reach near 60W late Tue evening,
and pass to the south of the area as it moves through the eastern
Caribbean Sea Wed and Wed night.

$$
Aguirre
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