[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242248
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jun 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W from
02N to 14N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Satellite imagery
shows scattered moderate convection from 05N to 11N between
28W-34W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form during the early to middle part of next week as it
approaches the Windward Islands. The disturbance has a low chance
of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and a
medium chance over the next 5 days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 48W from 01N
to 13N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 47W-51W. Enhanced
rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands as the tropical
wave passes through the area Sunday and Sunday night.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 84W
S of 17N and across western Panama and into the Pacific Ocean.
The wave is moving westward at about 10 kt. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection prevails S of 15N and W of 76W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic coast through the coast
of Senegal near 14N17W to 08N31W. The ITCZ extends from 08N33W
to 07N47W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 07N50W to
08N60W. Aside from the convection mentioned above related to the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N
to 12N between 18W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends southwest of the Florida Panhandle to
30N86W. A large area of showers and thunderstorms has developed
over the Florida peninsula, affecting the gulf waters E of 84W. A
weak high pressure dominates the rest of the area, resulting in
gentle anticyclonic flow in the Gulf, with seas of 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, the surface trough extends from the Florida
Panhandle to near 28N89W and will drift N and inland through
early Sat. A weak trough will then develop from the MS coastal
waters to the SW Florida coastal waters late Sat through Mon.
Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
through the weekend and into early next week, supporting mainly
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave interacting with the east Pacific monsoon trough
is producing strong convection in the SW Caribbean Sea. See above
for more information.

Elsewhere, mainly dry conditions prevail. Recent ASCAT satellite
wind data shows fresh trade winds across the south-central
Caribbean, with locally strong winds near the coast of Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Generally moderate winds are noted
elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, while light to
gentle winds prevail over the northwestern portion. Seas are 5-7
ft over the south-central Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas elsewhere
over the eastern and central basin. Seas of 1-3 ft are over the
northwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail
over the south-central Caribbean into the weekend as the
Atlantic ridge remains centered across the central Atlantic near
40N. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will dominate. A strong
tropical wave is expected to reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters
early Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N74W to near Jacksonville FL.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail along and south of
the frontal boundary mainly W of 79W. An upper-level low is
producing scattered moderate convection from 23N to 30N between
61W and 70W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2 to 6 ft
prevail W of 60W. Over the central Atlantic, a surface trough
extends from 28N57W to 24N57W. Scattered showers are associated
with this feature, mainly north of 24N. Fresh to strong winds
are noted in the recent ASCAT pass along the northern portion of
the trough. A broad surface ridge extends across the remainder of
the basin. Fresh trades and 6-8 ft seas are from the ITCZ to
about 22N between 50W and the coast of Africa. Moderate or weaker
winds prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front along 30N across the NW
waters will sink southward to 29N tonight, then stall through Sat
and dissipate. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure will remain
centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. A strong tropical
wave will reach near 60W late Tue evening.

$$
ERA
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