[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241659
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jun 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W from
02N to 14N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Satellite imagery
shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 360
nm west of the wave axis and within 150 nm east of the wave axis
from 03N to 11.5N. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form during the early to middle part of next week as it
approaches the Windward Islands. The disturbance has a low chance
of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and a
medium chance over the next 5 days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W from 02N
to 13N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 240 nm either side of the wave axis
from 06N to 10N. Enhanced rainfall is possible over the Windward
Islands as the tropical wave passes through the area Sunday and
Sunday night.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 83W
south of 17N and across western Panama and into the Pacific
Ocean. It is moving westward near 10 kt. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection extends from the wave axis eastward to
75W, from Panama to 13N. This convection is being enhanced by the
east Pacific monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic coast through the
coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 07N27W. The ITCZ extends from
07N31W to 07N45W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 07N49W
to 08N60W. Aside from the convection mentioned above, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N
between 18W and 24W, and from 04N to 12N between 37W to 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough extends southwest of the Florida Big Bend to
29N87W. A few scattered thunderstorms are noted offshore
southeastern Louisiana. A weak high pressure dominates the rest
of the area, resulting in gentle anticyclonic flow in the Gulf,
with seas of 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, the surface trough will drift N and inland
through early Sat. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will dominate
the Gulf waters through the weekend and into early next week,
supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave interacting with the east Pacific monsoon trough
is producing strong convection in the SW Caribbean Sea. See above
for more information. Elsewhere, mainly dry conditions prevail.
Recent ASCAT satellite wind data shows fresh trade winds across
the south-central Caribbean, with locally strong winds near the
coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Generally moderate
winds are noted elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean,
while light to gentle winds prevail over the northwestern
portion. Seas are 5-7 ft over the south-central Caribbean, with
3-5 ft seas elsewhere over the eastern and central basin. Seas of
1-3 ft are over the northwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail
over the south-central Caribbean into the weekend as the Atlantic
ridge remains centered across the central Atlantic near 40N.
Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will dominate. A strong
tropical wave, currently along 30W, is expected to reach the
Lesser Antilles Tue night. This system has a medium chance of
becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N74W to near Jacksonville FL.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can be noted along
and just south of the frontal boundary. An upper-level low is
producing scattered moderate convection from 23N to 30N between
61W and 67W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2 to 6 ft
prevail west of 60W. Over the central Atlantic, a sharp surface
through extends from 27N54W to 23N56W. Scattered moderate
convection is associated with this feature, mainly north of 24N.
Fresh to strong winds are noted in the recent ASCAT pass along the
northern portion of the trough. A broad surface ridge extends
across the remainder of the basin. Fresh trades and 6-8 ft seas
are from the ITCZ to about 22N between 50W and the coast of
Africa. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, the weak cold front along 30N will
sink southward to 29N today, then stall through early Sat and
dissipate. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure will remain centered
across the central Atlantic near 40N. A strong tropical wave will
reach near 60W Tue evening.

$$
Colon-Burgos/Hagen
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