[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240012
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jun 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W from 11N southward, and
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N-09N between 24W-27W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 11N southward,
and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are found from
06N to 10N between 40W and 44W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W from 17N southward across
Panama into the Pacific Ocean, and moving W near 10 kt.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over
Costa Rica, Panama and the west-central Caribbean east of
Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends southwestward across the African coast
near the Mauritania-Senegal border to 10N25W. Scattered moderate
convection is found from 05N to 08N between the coast of Sierra
Leone/Liberia and 18W. An ITCZ extends westward from 08N28W to
09N39W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 07N45W to near the
Suriname/French Guiana border. Scattered moderate convection is
noted up to 200 nm along either side of both segments.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough over the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is
triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
central Gulf and western Bay of Campeche. Another surface trough
near the Florida Big Bend area is generating gentle to moderate
SW to W winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft across the northeastern Gulf.
A 1017 mb high near 27N95W is dominating the northwestern and
west-central Gulf with light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2
ft. Gentle to moderate NE to N winds with 2 to 3 ft seas are
present for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the high will dominate the Gulf waters through
the weekend, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A robust upper-level trough is generating scattered showers and
thunderstorms near Cuba, Hispaniola and nearby waters. Refer to
the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the basin.
Fresh to locally strong NE to E trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are
occurring across the south-central basin, north of Colombia and
Venezuela. Light to gentle easterly trades with 2 to 4 ft seas are
evident for the northwestern basin. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly trades and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the
basin.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail
over the south-central Caribbean into the weekend as the Atlantic
ridge remains centered across the central Atlantic near 40N.
Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will dominate. A strong tropical
wave is expected to reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low south of Bermuda near 26N65W is triggering
scattered moderate convection from 25N to 30N between 59W and 65W.

Fresh to locally strong SW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas related to a
stationary front off the Carolina coast are found off the
Georgia/northern Florida coast, north of 29N and west of 73W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. The Atlantic ridge
extending from a 1034 mb high over the north-central Atlantic to
near Hispaniola is providing gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds
and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 20N between 25W and 70W. Light to
gentle southerly winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are evident from the
Bahamas northward to 29N and west of 70W. Moderate to fresh NNE
trades and 4 to 7 ft seas are present near the Canary Islands
north of 15N east of 25W. Moderate to locally fresh NE to ENE
trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist from 09N to 20N between 25W and
the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and 4 to
6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, the stationary front will sink
southward to 28N and weaken tonight through Fri evening before
dissipate early Sat. Fresh SW winds east of the Georgia/northern
Florida coast will continue through early tonight. Elsewhere,
Atlantic high pressure will remain centered across the central
Atlantic near 40N.

$$

Chan
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