[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231659
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jun 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 25W from 12N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04N-13N between 20W-30W.

A tropical wave has been added to this analysis, with axis along
42W from 01N-11N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Latest scatterometer data
depicts a broad cyclonic circulation in the area and latest
guidance shows cyclonic turning at 700 mb. Satellite imagery
depicts scattered moderate convection within 100 nm on either side
of the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 78W from 17N southward,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within
30 nm E of the wave axis south of 13N. A large area of moderate
convection is noted W of the wave from 11N-15N between 79W-84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14N16W to
12N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N28W to 10N37W, then resumes W of
a tropical wave near 06N46W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection
described in the tropical wave section above, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N-10N between 45W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1017 mb is centered over the NW Gulf near
27N94W. To the east, a surface trough extends from the Florida's
Big Bend to near 20N86W. Light to gentle winds prevail over the
northern Gulf with gentle to moderate winds over the southern
Gulf. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the southern Gulf and 1-3
ft over the northern Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
through the weekend, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds
and slight to moderate seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to locally strong winds will prevail over the south central
Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds are noted over the
north central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds prevail
over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the
south central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail over
the south-central Caribbean into the weekend as the Atlantic ridge
remains centered across N central portions. Elsewhere, mainly
moderate trades will dominate.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A gale force low is moving over the western Atlantic north of the
area. Fresh to strong winds in association to this low are
impacting the waters north of 30N and west of 73W. A surface
trough extends from near 28N69W to the southern Bahamas. Scattered
showers are noted in the vicinity of the trough axis mainly north
of 24N. Light to gentle winds prevail near the trough. Moderate
to fresh winds prevail elsewhere north of 20N, with gentle to
moderate winds over the waters south of 20N. Seas are in the 3-5
ft range north of 20N and west of 55W, and 5-7 ft north of 20N and
east of 55W. South of 20N, seas of 4-6 ft are noted.

For the forecast W of 65W, the trough over the eastern Bahamas
will dissipate into Fri, while Atlantic high pressure remains
centered across N central portions. Fresh to strong SW winds over
the NW waters will continue through tonight as low pressure moves
north of the area.

$$
ERA
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