[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jun 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W and south of 13N based on
recent scatterometer satellite wind data. It is moving W around
15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed from 05N-10N and between 22W and 29W. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development over the
next few days. A tropical depression could form by early next week
as this system moves westward over the tropical Atlantic. The
disturbance has a medium chance of development over the next 5
days.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W, south of 13N and
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers are found from 06N-09N
and between 42W and 45W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W, south of 17N and across
Panama into the Pacific Ocean, and moving W around 10 kt.
A large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms is noted S of
16N and between the coast of NW Colombia and E Nicaragua,
including within 90 nm of Costa Rica and Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic coast through the border of
Senegal and The Gambia near 14N17W and continues to 11N19W. The
ITCZ extends from 11N19W to 07N25W and then from 06N27W to 07N43W
and then from 07N45W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 04N-10N and E of 20W. Similar convection is occurring
from 02N-11N and between 31W and 41W. Scattered showers are noted
near the ITCZ W of 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough extends from SE Georgia to the central Gulf
of Mexico near 23N89W. Upper level divergence is enhancing the
development of a line of showers near the southern portion of the
trough. The rest of the basin is dominated by a 1015 mb high
pressure system positioned over the NW Gulf and the weather
conditions are fairly tranquil. Gentle to locally moderate
anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will dominate the Gulf
waters through the weekend and into early next week, supporting
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aside from the tropical wave mentioned above in the Tropical
Waves section, fairly weather conditions dominate the Caribbean
Sea. Fresh to locally strong trades are affecting the south-
central and southeast waters of the basin, with the strongest
winds occurring in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in the waters
described are 4-6 ft. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades are
noted in the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean, while
light to locally moderate winds are present in the NW Caribbean.
Seas in this region are 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail over
the south-central Caribbean into the weekend as the Atlantic
ridge remains centered across the central Atlantic near 40N.
Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will dominate. A strong
tropical wave is expected to reach the Tropical N Atlantic
waters Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from a low pressure near 36N69W to the
coast of Georgia. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms is
seen N of 30N and between 71W and 76W. Moderate to locally fresh
S-SW winds are present N of 27N and W of 71W. Seas in the area
described are 3-6 ft. Farther east. an upper-level low south of
Bermuda near 26N65W is producing scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection from 22N-28N and between 61W and 66W.

The Atlantic ridge extending from a 1035 mb high over the north-
central Atlantic to near Hispaniola is providing gentle to
moderate NE to ENE winds and seas of 4-7 ft north of 20N between
25W and 70W. Light to gentle southerly winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft
are evident from Hispaniola northward to 29N and the remainder of
the basin west of 65W. Moderate to locally fresh NE to ENE trades
and seas at 4-7 ft exist from 09N to 20N between 25W and the
Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh NNE trades and 4-7 ft seas are
present near the Canary Islands to 15N and E of 25W. Gentle to
moderate monsoonal winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail for the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, a weakening frontal boundary just north
of the NW waters will sink southward to 29N late tonight through
early Sat and dissipate. Fresh SW winds over the NW waters will
continue through late tonight. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure
will remain centered across the central Atlantic near 40N.

$$
Delgado
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net