[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jun 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 65W south of 17N. It is
moving westward around 15 knots. Isolated showers are within
60 to 120 nm of the wave axis.

Large clusters of numerous strong are moving off the African
coast from 05N to 16N. This activity also extends inland for
about 180 nm, and may be in advance of the next tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 13N16W to low pressure of 1012 mb near 15N23W to 07N40W.
The ITCZ continues from 07N40W to 06N50W to 08N60W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 30 nm of
the ITCZ between 35W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the southwestern Gulf from 24N96W to
the central Bay of Campeche near 19N93W. A 1023 mb high over
is over the far NE Gulf. Fresh winds are noted east of the
trough axis over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are along and west of the trough. Similar
convection are over the eastern Gulf from 25N to 28N, and over
the Straits of Florida. This activity extends westward to the far
southeastern Gulf near 83W from 23N to 25N. Light to gentle
winds are over the northeast Gulf, with moderate to fresh winds
prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in the SW Gulf
and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
providing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas for most of the week. Winds off the western Yucatan
peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche will pulse to fresh to
locally strong at night through Wed night. The showers and
thunderstorms west of the aforementioned trough will continue
through tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Atlantic high pressure is centered northeast of the area along
with lower pressure farther south over the southwest Caribbean and
eastern Pacific. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong winds
prevail over the south-central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the
6-7 ft range over the south central Caribbeans as well as the
Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 3-6 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure northeast of the
area will sustain gentle to moderate trade winds across the
basin north of 15N, and also south of 15N between 67W and the
Windward Islands into the weekend. The fresh to strong trade
winds over the south-central Caribbean will continue through
the rest of the week. Trade winds over the south-central basin,
north of Colombia and Venezuela are expected to remain at fresh
with strong pulses during the nights most the week. A tropical
wave might cause heavy showers and strong thunderstorms for the
southwestern basin on Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N62W southwest to 27N69W to
near 25N73W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
within 150 nm southeast and south of the front between 67W- 73W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted elsewhere
within 180 nm east of the front. A trough extends 29N78W to
25N78W. A surface trough extends from 28N42W to 25N43W to 20N41W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
within 90 nm south of the front between 65W and 75W. Gentle to
moderate northeast winds prevail north of the front. Light to
gentle breezes prevail elsewhere north of 20N and west of 55W.
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of 20N and east of
55W. South of 20N, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in
the 4-6 ft range north of 20N and west of 45W. E of 45W, seas are
in the 6-8 ft range. S of 20N, seas of 4-7 ft are noted.

For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned stationary
front will gradually dissipate through Wed. The remnant trough
will then persist near and northeast of the Bahamas through Thu.
Farther north, a frontal system exiting the Georgia and South
Carolina coast might cause fresh to strong southerly winds and
higher seas east of northern Florida Wed night through Thu.
Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge stretching from the central
Atlantic to near Hispaniola will dominate much of the basin.

$$
Aguirre
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