[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jun 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W, from 18N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is from the Greater Antilles southward between the
eastern Caribbean Sea islands and 70W.

An upper level trough extends from the border of the Deep South
of Texas and NE Mexico to the Yucatan Peninsula. A SW Gulf of
Mexico tropical wave is along 93W, from 22N southward, moving
westward 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
is within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico between the tropical wave
and 98W. Strong winds are within 120 nm on either side of the
tropical wave from 20N to 23N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of The
Gambia, to the Cabo Verde Islands, to 10N30W 07N37W 07N43W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N43W to 07N56W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 620 nm to the
south of the monsoon trough between 14W and 22W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14W eastward, and
within 320 nm on either side of the rest of the monsoon trough
and ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from the border of the Deep South
of Texas and NE Mexico to the Yucatan Peninsula. A SW Gulf of
Mexico tropical wave is along 93W, from 22N southward, moving
westward 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
is within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico between the tropical wave
and 98W. Strong winds are within 120 nm on either side of the
tropical wave from 20N to 23N.

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1021 mb high
pressure center that is near 33N70W, to 30N75W, through NE
Florida, to a 1021 mb high pressure center that is about 45 nm
to the south of the Florida Panhandle, then southwestward to the
coast of Mexico near 22N98W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind
flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, away from the tropical wave. The
surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. The sea heights
range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the SW Gulf of Mexico, and they
range from 1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere.

A surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters supporting mainly
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds off
the western Yucatan peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche will
pulse to fresh to locally strong at night through Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 17N
northward from 80W eastward.
The cyclonic wind flow is entering the area from the Atlantic
Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate remains in the area of
cyclonic wind flow between 70W and 80W.

The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, to 10N80W,
through SE Nicaragua and western Nicaragua, into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 90 nm to
north of 10N between the coast of Colombia and 79W, and from 11N
southward between 80W and 82W.

An Atlantic Ocean high pressure center is to the northeast of
the area. Comparatively lower surface pressures are in the SW
Caribbean Sea and in the eastern Pacific Ocean. This pattern is
supporting fresh to strong winds prevail in the south central
Caribbean Sea, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh
winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range: from 7 feet to 8
feet from 11N to 14N between 70W and 80W; from 6 feet to 7 feet
in the Gulf of Honduras; from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder
of the Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail over the south
central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds
are expected over the remainder of the central and eastern
Caribbean, with light to gentle winds over the western
Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 57W westward. A
stationary front is along 31N62W to 25N72W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong covers the area of the upper
level cyclonic wind flow.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 17N northward from 58W eastward.

Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward
between 25W and 57W. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights have been
ranging: from 8 feet to 9 feet from 21N northward between 20W
and 45W; from 2 feet to 4 feet from the Bahamas westward; from 4
feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A trough over the eastern waters will drift westward over the
southern waters and weaken through Fri. Fresh to strong SW winds
will develop over the NW waters Thu and Fri as low pres
shifts north of the area.

$$
mt/al
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