[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211637
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jun 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W from 15N southward,
moving westward at around 15 knots. Scattered showers are noted
from 11N to 13N between 60W and 62W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Senegal near 14N17W to 1012 mb low pressure near 15N23W to 07N40W.
The ITCZ continues from 07N40W to 06N50W to 08N60W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 06N
between 12W and 14W, and from 05N08N between 33W and 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the southwest Gulf from near
22N94W to 19N94W in the Bay of Campeche. Fresh winds are noted
east of the trough axis over the eastern Bay of Campeche. A ridge
extends from the southeastern U.S. to the Texas coast. Light to
gentle winds are over the northeast Gulf, with moderate to fresh
winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in the
SW Gulf and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
providing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas. Winds off the western Yucatan peninsula and in the Bay of
Campeche will pulse to fresh to locally strong at night through
Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Atlantic high pressure is centered northeast of the area along
with lower pressure farther south over the southwest Caribbean and
eastern Pacific. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong winds
prevail over the south central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the
6-7 ft range over the south central Caribbeans as well as the Gulf
of Honduras. Seas of 3-6 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the ongoing pattern will support fresh to
strong E to SE winds and occasionally rough seas over mainly the
south- central and northwest Caribbean through early today. Winds
and seas will then diminish basin wide through mid week as the
Atlantic ridge weakens, then freshen across the south-central
portions Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N60W southwest to just east of the
northern Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted within 90 nm south of the front between 65W
and 75W. Gentle to moderate NE winds prevail north of the front.
Light to gentle breezes prevail elsewhere north of 20N and west
of 55W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of 20N and
east of 55W. South of 20N, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas
are in the 4-6 ft range north of 20N and west of 45W. East of 45W,
seas are in the 6-8 ft range. South of 20N, seas of 4-7 ft are
noted.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will dissipate
late today into tonight. The remnant trough will then persist
near and northeast of the Bahamas through Thu. Otherwise, the
Atlantic ridge will remain centered across the NE Atlantic and
extend a ridge across the area.

$$
Christensen
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