[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jun 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 69W, from 15N southward,
moving west at 15-20 kt. Convection is inland over W Venezuela.
Recent Upper Air Sounding data from Barbados, Cayenne, and
Guadeloupe, internal NHC Tropical Wave Diagnostics, and GOES-16
Satellite Data, all support the analysis of the tropical wave axis
at this longitude. This is a significant adjustment from prior
analyses, and will be reflected in products beginning with the
1800 UTC Unified Surface Analysis.

At 1500 UTC, the axis of a tropical wave is near 87W from 22N
southward, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 12N to 17N west of 82W, including inland
over NE Nicaragua and E Honduras. Fresh to strong SE to E winds
are evident in the NW Caribbean west of 84W in the latest
observations, with 4-6 ft seas. Seas may peak locally at 7 ft in
the highest winds.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to 1012 mb low pressure near 13N26N to 09N32W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N32W to 08N52W. Scattered moderate convection
associated with the monsoon trough is from 08N to 11N between 23W
and 27W. Scattered moderate convection near the ITCZ is from 08N
to 11N between 56W and 60W. Additional scattered showers are
noted along both features.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 1500 UTC, the stationary front located in the far NE Gulf has
dissipated. Also as of 1500 UTC, a weak surface trough is in the
NW Gulf, and 1012 mb low pressure is centered in the Bay of
Campeche near 19N93W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of
these features. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are noted across
the basin. Seas are 1-3 ft north of 26N, and 3-5 ft south of 26N.

For the forecast, the low pressure will bring periodic showers
and thunderstorms for the Bay of Campeche through this evening.
Otherwise, surface ridging will provide gentle to moderate winds
across much of the Gulf through Tue night, except the west-
central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche where
moderate to fresh with locally strong E to SE winds are expected.
Afterward, the weakening ridge should provide gentle to moderate
winds for the entire Gulf through the weekend. NE winds at the
eastern Bay of Campeche will pulse to between fresh and strong on
Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on a
tropical wave currently impacting the NW Caribbean.

Some scattered showers, associated with the East Pacific Monsoon
Trough, are noted in the southwest Caribbean. An area of moderate
to fresh trade winds is evident on the latest scatterometer pass in
the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere.
Seas are 6-8 ft in the central Caribbean where winds are highest
and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge to the northeast and monsoon trough near Panama and western
Colombia will prolong fresh to strong E to ESE winds and higher
seas across the western and central basin, including the Gulf of
Honduras through tonight. These winds should become gentle to
moderate by Tue afternoon as the Atlantic ridge weakens. Winds in
the south-central basin will be moderate to fresh until Wed, then
become fresh with locally strong by Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

At 1500 UTC, a cold front enters the discussion waters at 31N63W
and continues to 27N69W to the northern Bahamas near 27N71W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm ahead of the
front. Recent scatterometer depicts gentle to locally moderate NE
winds behind the frontal boundary. The remainder of the tropical
Atlantic is dominated by the subtropical Azores high pressure
centered north of the area. In the E Atlantic, moderate to fresh
NE winds are found north of 27N east of 40W, with 7-10 ft seas in
NE swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
continues, with 4-6 ft seas in the W Atlantic and 4-7 ft seas in
the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front and related weather
will sink southward into the central Bahamas through Tue, then
stall and dissipate late Tue. The remnant trough will then
persist east of the Bahamas through mid week. Otherwise, the
Atlantic ridge will remain centered across the NE Atlantic and
dominate much of the Atlantic Basin.

$$
Mahoney/Colon-Burgos
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