[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200930
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jun 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 58W from 16N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
from 07N to 11N between 55W and 59W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W from 22N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is within 210 nm east of the wave axis north of
16N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 16N16W to
08N32N. The ITCZ continues from 08N32W to 09N50W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N
between 32W and 40W, and from 08N to 10N between 42W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends over the far northern waters. Moderate
to fresh winds prevail over the southern waters with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range in the
waters off the Yucatan peninsula, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
providing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas. Winds off the western Yucatan peninsula and in the Bay of
Campeche will pulse to fresh to locally strong at night through
the middle part of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are over the south central Caribbean, with
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range
over the south central Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the western
Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure centered NE of the area
along with lower pressure farther south over the southwest
Caribbean and eastern Pacific will support fresh to strong E to SE
winds and occasionally rough seas over mainly the south-central
and northwest Caribbean through tonight. Winds and seas will
diminish basin wide through mid week as the Atlantic ridge
weakens, then freshen across the south-central portions Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N64W to northern Florida. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of
the front. A surface trough extends from 31N51W to 28N52W.
Isolated moderate showers are in the vicinity of the trough. A
surface ridge enters the area near 31N43W, and extends SW to the
southern Bahamas. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the waters
north of 20N and west of 50W, with moderate to fresh winds
elsewhere north of 20N, reaching locally strong north of 27N and
east of 32W. South of 20N, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Seas
are in the 4-6 ft range north of 20N and west of 45W, and 6 to 8
ft north of 20N and east of 45W. South of 20N, seas are in the 4-7
ft range.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front across the northern
waters will sink southward across the waters north of 27N through
tonight then stall and dissipate across the NW Bahamas late Tue.
The remnant trough will then persist northeast of the Bahamas
through mid week. Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge will remain
centered across the NE Atlantic and extend a ridge across the
area.

$$
AL
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