[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jun 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 210 nm to the east of the
tropical wave, and within 270 nm to the west of the tropical
wave, and it is near the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, from 22N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. The monsoon trough passes
through east central coastal Nicaragua to Colombia near 09N75W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N
northward between 80W and the tropical wave. Scattered strong in
clusters is within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough
between the coast of Colombia and 78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal plains of
Senegal, to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 13N27W,
to 08N32W. The ITCZ continues from 08N32W to 07N40W and 08N50W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strongis
within 300 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between
26W and 32W, and within 200 nm to the north of the ITCZ between
43W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is in the north central coastal plains and
coastal waters, from Florida to Louisiana. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 25N northward from
93W eastward.

Light to gentle northeast to east winds are in most areas. The
exception is for gentle to moderate winds in the southern
sections of the basin. The sea heights generally range from 2
feet to 4 feet, except for the sea heights that range from 3
feet to 5 feet in the central, the southeastern, and the
southwestern sections.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico,
away from the surface trough and the outflow boundary. The
surface pressure gradient is flat and weak.

Tropical Depression Celia is in the eastern Pacific Ocean, about
210 nm to the south of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate,
and isolated to widely scattered strong, are from Belize to
Guatemala to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and
in the coastal waters, from 21N in the Gulf of Mexico southward.

A surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters, providing mainly
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. The winds
off the western Yucatan Peninsula, and in the Bay of Campeche,
will pulse to fresh to locally strong at night through the
middle part of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Generally moderate trade winds are in much of the area. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet.
The exception is the central Caribbean Sea. The surface pressure
gradient that is between the subtropical Atlantic Ocean high and
lower pressure in South America and the southwestern corner of
the Caribbean Sea, supports fresh to locally strong trade winds.
These winds have been in the same area during the last few days.
The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet, due to an east
swell in the central Caribbean Sea from 12N to 16N between 72W
and 77W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, from 22N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. The monsoon trough passes
through east central coastal Nicaragua to Colombia near 09N75W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N
northward between 80W and the tropical wave. Scattered strong in
clusters is within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough
between the coast of Colombia and 78W.

Atlantic Ocean high pressure centered NE of the area, and lower
pressure farther south in the southwestern Caribbean Sea and in
the eastern Pacific Ocean, will support fresh to strong E to SE
winds and occasionally rough seas, mainly in the south central
and northwestern Caribbean Sea through Mon night. The winds and
the seas will diminish basin wide through mid week, as the
Atlantic
Ocean ridge weakens, then freshen in the south central part on
Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N66W to 30N70W. A stationary front
continues from 30N70W, beyond NE Florida, into the north central
Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 25N northward from 63W westward. Other
isolated moderate is elsewhere, from the NE Caribbean Sea
islands and 20N northward from 60W westward.

A surface trough passes through 31N51W to 26N52W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 24N northward between 50W and 60W. An
upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N55W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 60 nm of the center in the
W quadrant.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N29W, with
no nearby significant deep convective precipitation.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 18N
northward from 50W eastward.

Gentle to moderate southwest winds are to the southeast of the
cold front, while mainly gentle east winds are to the south of
the stationary front. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic  wind flow
is from
20N northward. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic winds are
from 20N southward. Fresh winds are behind the 55W/56W tropical
wave. These winds reach eastward to 42W. The sea heights range
from 7 feet to 8 feet to the north of the line 31N14W 29N20W
19N26W 31N35W. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet,
elsewhere, from the Cabo Verde Islands northward from 30W
eastward. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 13 feet from 31N
northward from 20W eastward. A 1012 mb low pressure center is
near 13N27W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet from
04N to 09N between 20W and 26W. The sea heights range from 6
feet to 7 feet from 20N northward between 30W and 40W. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front across the northern waters will sink southward
across the waters north of 27N through Mon night, then stall and
dissipate across the NW Bahamas late Tue. The remnant trough
will then persist northeast of the Bahamas through mid week.
Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge will remain centered across the NE
Atlantic and extend a ridge across the area.

$$
mt/al
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