[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jun 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W south of 16N,
moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 60 nm either side of the wave from
07N to 10N.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W south of 22N
to the eastern Pacific Ocean. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt.
Enhanced scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 12N to 22N between 80W-85W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are ahead of the wave. ASCAT data
indicated fresh to strong east-southeast winds behind the wave
to 81W.3W in the vicinity of the wave axis. Seas with these
winds are in the range of 4-7 ft.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the border of Senegal and
Mauritania near 16N16W to low pressure of 1010 mb near 13N22W
to 07N30W and to 07N38W, where latest scatterometer data
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N41W and to
just east of the tropical wave that is along 53W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 270 nm south
and southeast of the trough between 23W-28W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 28W-33W,
and within 60 nm south of the trough between 33W-39W. Strong to
near gale force south to southwest winds were noted in an earlier
ASCAT pass to be south of the scattered moderate to isolated
convective activity.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1018 mb is centered just inland Texas near
Galveston. A stationary front stretches from northern Florida
westward to 29N87W and northwestward to inland southeastern
Louisiana. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms moving
westward are over the central Gulf from 25N to 28N between 87W-
92W. A surface trough over the southwestern Gulf is producing
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 19N to 21N
west of 95W to just inland the coast of Mexico. The latest buoy
and ASCAT data passes reveal light to gentle northeast to east
winds across the basin, except for gentle to moderate winds
in southern sections of the basin. Seas are 2-4 ft, except
for 3-5 ft in the central, southeastern and Bay of Campeche
sections.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf
waters providing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas. Winds off the western Yucatan peninsula and in the
Bay of Campeche will pulse to fresh to locally strong at night
through the middle part of next week

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on a
tropical wave currently impacting the northwestern Caribbean.

Outside of the northwest Caribbean, which is largely dominated
by a passing tropical wave, generally moderate trade winds are
occurring elsewhere in the basin along with 4-7 ft seas. The
exception is the central Caribbean, where the pressure gradient
between the subtropical Atlantic high and lower pressure over
South America and the southwestern Caribbean supports fresh to
locally strong trade winds. The persistence of these winds over
the past couple of days has built seas to 7-9 ft due to an east
swell in the central Caribbean from 12N to 16N between 72W-77W.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving off the coast of
northwestern Colombia to the waters south of 13N and between
74W-78W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south
of 12N and west of 77W.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure centered NE of the area
along with lower pressure farther south over the southwest
Caribbean and eastern Pacific will support fresh to strong E to
SE winds and occasionally rough seas over mainly the south-
central and northwest Caribbean through Mon night. Very active
weather is expected across the northwestern Caribbean and Gulf
of Honduras through Mon as a tropical wave moves across the area.
Winds and seas will diminish basin wide through mid-week as the
Atlantic ridge weakens, then freshen across the south-central
sections on Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N68W to 30N75W, where it becomes
stationary to 30N78W and to inland northeastern Florida. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are within 360 nm southeast and south
of the cold front, and also south of the stationary front from
24N to 28N between 75W-80W. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are over the Florida peninsula. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are south of 24N west of 75W, and from 22N to
24N between 67W-75W. Gentle to moderate southwest winds are
southeast of the cold front, while mainly gentle east winds are
south of the stationary front. A surface trough extends from
31N50W to near 26N54W. No significant convection is occurring
with this trough. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow dominates
the waters north of 20N, with moderate to locally fresh
anticyclonic winds south of the 20N. Fresh winds are behind the
tropical wave that is along 53W. These winds reach eastward to
near 42W. Seas are 4-6 ft west of 65W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front
will push southward across the waters north of 27N through Mon
night then stall and dissipate across the northwestern Bahamas
late Tue. The remnant trough will then persist northeast of the
Bahamas through mid week. Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge will
remain centered across the northeastern Atlantic and extend a
modest ridge across the area.

$$
Aguirre
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