[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jun 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave has its axis along 69W south of 16N
to inland western Venezuela. It is moving westward at 15-20 kt.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over northern Venezuela
between 69W-72W.

A tropical wave is along 88W south of 22N, moving westward at
about 5-10 kt. Clusters of scattered moderate to strong
convection are over the majority of the inland sections of
the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Honduras and Nicaragua. Latest
ASCAT data passes indicate fresh to strong east to southeast
winds over the northwestern Caribbean west of 82W along with
seas of 4-6 ft, except for higher seas of 6-8 ft north of 18N
and west of 85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W and continues southwest to low pressure of 1012 mb
near 15N24W and to 08N33W, where latest scatterometer data
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to
08N44W and to and 09N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is between 180 to 240 nm southeast and south
of the between 25W and 30W. Similar activity is noted from
09N to 12N between 57W-61W, and just offshore the coast of
Africa from 03N to 10N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough is in the NW Gulf, and 1012 mb low
pressure is centered in the central Bay of Campeche near 19N94W.
Weak high pressure is over basin. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted south of 22N west of 93W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is just inland and along the
Yucatan Peninsula coast south of 21N. This activity is sliding
southwestward over the far eastern Bay of Campeche waters.
Similar activity is west-central Florida and over southwest
Florida and its adjacent waters. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are over the south-central Gulf waters from 22N to
24N and between 84W-87W. Isolated showers and small thunderstorms
are over the north- central waters. A few showers and
thunderstorms are over some sections of the Florida panhandle.
Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are noted across the
basin. Seas are 1-3 ft north of 26N, and 3-5 ft south of 26N.

For the forecast, a surface trough will bring periods of showers
and thunderstorms for the west-central and southwestern Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche through late Tue afternoon.
Otherwise, surface ridging will provide gentle to moderate winds
across much of the Gulf through Tue night, except the west-
central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche
where moderate to fresh with locally strong east-southeast
winds are expected. Afterwards, the weakening ridge should
provide gentle to moderate winds for the entire Gulf through
the weekend. Northeast winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche will
pulse to between fresh and strong on Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on a
tropical wave currently impacting the far northwest Caribbean.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms associated with the
east segment of the eastern East Pacific monsoon trough are
over the southwest part of the sea from 11N to 15N between
70W and the coast of Nicaragua. An area of moderate to fresh
trade winds is evident on the latest scatterometer pass in the
central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas
are 6-8 ft in the central Caribbean where winds are highest and
4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a tightened pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge to the northeast and lower pressure near Panama
and western Colombia will prolong fresh to strong northeast-east
to east-southeast trade winds  and higher seas across the
western and central basin, including the Gulf of Honduras through
Tue morning. These winds should become gentle to moderate by
late Tue afternoon as the Atlantic ridge weakens. Winds in the
south-central basin will be moderate to fresh until Wed, then
become fresh with locally strong by Thu. Strong trade wind
convergence is triggering showers and thunderstorms near the
Windward Islands and this trend will continue through late Tue
afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the discussion waters at 31N61W and
continues to 28N66W and to 26N75W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 150 to 180 nm east-southeast of the front,
and behind it within 30 nm of 28N67W. Gentle to moderate
northeast winds are behind this front. The remainder of the
tropical Atlantic is dominated by broad high pressure, with
the parent high center located well north of the discussion
area near the Azores. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh
northeast winds are north of 27N east of 40W, with 7-10 ft seas
in northeast swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow continues, with 4-6 ft seas in the western Atlantic, and 4-7
ft seas in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front and
related weather will sink southward into the central Bahamas
through Tue, then stall and dissipate late Tue. The remnant
trough will then persist east of the Bahamas through mid-week.
Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge will remain centered across the
NE Atlantic and dominate much of the Atlantic Basin.

$$
Aguirre
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