[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jun 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 270 nm on either side of
the tropical wave, and it is near the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. The monsoon
trough passes through east central Nicaragua to Colombia near
10N75W.  Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 180 nm on either side of the tropical wave. Scattered to
numerous strong is in Colombia from 07N to 10N between the
border with Venezuela and 76W in Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W, to 09N20W 07N32W. The ITCZ continues from
07N32W to 07N45W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, are within
360 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 16N southward from 60W
eastward, in the remainder of the area.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is along 30N in Florida, from the Florida
Panhandle eastward. Rainshowers are within 120 nm to the south
of the surface trough. An outflow boundary is in southern
Florida, with rainshowers and thunderstorms pushing southward,
from south Florida into the Straits of Florida.

A 1015 mb high pressure center is near 29N93W, off the coast of
SW Louisiana. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the
Gulf of Mexico, away from the surface trough and the outflow
boundary. The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N103W in
Mexico. Tropical Depression Celia is in the eastern Pacific
Ocean off the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and
isolated to widely scattered strong, are in central America and
Mexico and the coastal waters, from 21N in the Gulf of Mexico
southward.

The weak surface pressure pattern is supporting light to gentle
breezes in most areas. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3
feet, except for the range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters providing mainly
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. The winds
off the western Yucatan Peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche
will pulse to fresh to locally strong at night through the
middle part of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 200 nm to
the east of Andros Island in the Bahamas. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers parts of the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico,
Florida, and the Atlantic Ocean from 18N to 28N between 66W and
86W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in
the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. The monsoon
trough passes through east central Nicaragua to Colombia near
10N75W.  Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 180 nm on either side of the tropical wave. Scattered to
numerous strong is in Colombia from 07N to 10N between the
border with Venezuela and 76W in Colombia.

Mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds are in the Caribbean Sea.
Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are in the south central
Caribbean, mainly near the coast of northeast Colombia and in
the Gulf of Venezuela. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6
feet elsewhere.

High pressure north of the area, and lower pressure farther
south in the southwest Caribbean Sea and in the eastern Pacific
Ocean, will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and
occasionally rough seas mainly in the south central and
northeastern Caribbean Sea, through the early part of next week.
The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish through mid
week as the ridge weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 200 nm to
the east of Andros Island in the Bahamas. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers parts of the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico,
Florida, and the Atlantic Ocean from 18N to 28N between 66W and
86W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in
the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 640 nm to
the NE of Puerto Rico, in the Atlantic Ocean. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the Caribbean Sea and the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N to 30N between 54W and 62W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from within 240 nm of the center in the northern quadrant.

A surface trough is along 31N47W to 27N52W, at the southern end
of a cold front. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 17N northward from 60W eastward, and
elsewhere from 60W westward. A surface ridge passes through
31N39W, to 28N42W 22N59W 22N73W.

Moderate SW winds are north of 30N west of 70W, the surface
ridge and a Carolinas cold front.
Light breezes and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere along
the ridge from 55W westward.
Light breezes are elsewhere from 22N northward from 35W
westward. Moderate trade winds, and slight to moderate sea
heights, are more to the south. Moderate to fresh NE winds, and
sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are from 35W
eastward, with strong winds and rough seas off Morocco.

A cold front will sink southward across the waters north of 27N
Sun through Mon then stall and dissipate across the NW Bahamas
late Tue. Looking ahead, a remnant trough will persist
northeast of the Bahamas through mid week.

$$
mt/al
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