[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jun 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 46W from 15N southward,
moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N
to 11N between 44W and 46W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W from 15N southward,
moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 12N to 14N between 79W and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N15W to 07N20W to 05N31W. The ITCZ continues from 05N31W to
04N43W. Scattered moderate convection associated with the monsoon
trough is from 06N to 09N between 16W and 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1017 mb high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf near
28N94W. Farther south, a surface trough extends over the far southwest
Gulf from 23N97W to 19N93W. A few showers are noted along the
trough, mainly south of 20N between 92W and 94W. The weak pressure
pattern is supporting light to gentle breezes across the Gulf
with 1 to 3 ft seas, except 2 to 4 ft in the southwest Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak frontal boundary will move into the far
northeast Gulf tonight then dissipate through Sun. Elsewhere, a
surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters providing mainly
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds off
the western Yucatan peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche will
pulse to fresh to locally strong at night through the middle
part of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main influences on the Caribbean weather pattern continue to
be the subtropical ridge north of the area along roughly 24N, and
lower pressure farther south along the monsoon trough, which
extends from north-central Colombia to central Nicaragua. Along
with lower pressure over the eastern Pacific, the pattern is
supporting mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the
basin, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the south-
central Caribbean, mainly near the coast of northeast Colombia and
in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. Scattered
moderate showers and thunderstorms are noted south of a line from
northeast Colombia to Belize, aided in part by the convergence of
the easterly trade wind flow.

For the forecast, little change through the early part of the
week. Winds and seas will diminish through mid week as the ridge
weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from 1018 mb high pressure near 21N58W
westward through the central Bahamas. Buoy, ship and scatterometer
satellite data show moderate SW winds north of 30N west of 70W
between the ridge and cold front currently over the Carolina coast
approaching the area from the north. Light breezes and slight to
moderate seas are noted elsewhere along the ridge axis west of
55W. Meanwhile, an upper-level low centered over the Bahamas is
producing scattered showers in the region. Farther east, surface
ridging extends across the region north of 22N, interrupted only
by a 1018 mb low pressure area centered near 27N50W. This is
supporting light breezes elsewhere north of 22N west of 35W, with
moderate trade winds farther south, with slight to moderate seas.
Moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted east of
35W, with strong winds and rough seas off Morocco.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front currently
approaching the area from the north will sink southward across the
waters north of 27N Sun through Mon then stall and dissipate
across the NW Bahamas late Tue. Looking ahead, a remnant trough
will persist northeast of the Bahamas through mid week.

$$
Christensen
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