[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jun 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 45W from 15N southward,
moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N
to 10N between 44W and 47W,.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 77W from 17N southward,
moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection, likely enhanced by the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is
noted in the SW Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 14N
between 76W and 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 07N20W to 05N31W. The ITCZ continues from 05N31W to
04N42W. Scattered moderate convection associated with the monsoon
trough is from 05N to 11N east of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface observations at 1500 UTC indicate a well-defined 1018 mb
high pressure is centered in the NW Gulf near 28.5N94W. A weak
surface trough is positioned in the Bay of Campeche producing
scattered showers. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow with 2-4 ft
seas are found across the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface high pressure will continue to
dominate the Gulf waters providing mainly gentle to moderate winds
and slight to moderate seas. Winds off the western Yucatan
Peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche will pulse to fresh to
locally strong at night through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted in the Gulf
of Honduras, from the coast of Honduras north to 18N west of 85W.
Scattered showers are over the Windward Passage. Moderate trades
prevail over the Caribbean, except in the south-central Caribbean
and portions of the Gulf of Venezuela, where trades are fresh.
Seas are 4-6 ft, locally 7 ft in highest winds.

For the forecast, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail
with the exception of fresh strong winds over the south central
Caribbean through early next week. Winds will then diminish
slightly.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low centered over the Bahamas is producing
scattered showers in the region. A surface trough is analyzed from
26N58W to 29N69W. Weak 1018 mb low pressure is centered at 27N51W,
with a stationary front extending from the low north to 31N48W. A
weak surface trough extends south from the low pressure to
25.5N52W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of these features.
1017 mb high pressure, an extension of the subtropical Azores
high, is centered near 22N64W. The tropical Atlantic is dominated
by the subtropical Azores high centered north of the discussion
area. Anticyclonic winds are gentle to moderate across the basin
west of 30W, with 4-6 ft seas. East of 30W, NE winds are moderate
to fresh due to a higher pressure gradient and seas are 6-8 ft in
NE swell.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front currently approaching the
area from the north will sink southward across the waters north
of 27N Sun through Mon then stall and dissipate across the NW
Bahamas late Tue.

$$
Mahoney
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