[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jun 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 44W from 14N southward,
moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 41W and 46W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 75W from 17N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 76W and 78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes off the coast of Africa near 12N17W to
08N30W. The ITCZ continues from 08N30W to 05N42W. It resumes from
05N46W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 05N to 11N between 14W and 20W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N to 09N between 30W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails over the forecast waters, with a 1016 mb
high center near 28N88W. Light winds are in the vicinity of the
high center. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range west of the Yucatan
peninsula, and 3-4 ft in the Yucatan channel. Elsewhere, seas are
in the 1-4 ft range.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
providing mainly gentle to moderate winds. Winds off the western
Yucatan peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche will pulse to fresh
to locally strong at night through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough over the western Caribbean is supporting an area of
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over the waters
N of 15N and W of 76W. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the
south central Caribbean with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere.
Seas are in the 6-7 ft range over the south central Caribbean, and
4-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail
with the exception of fresh strong winds over the south central
Caribbean through early next week. Winds will then diminish
slightly.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N45W to 27N59W where it becomes
stationary to the northern Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection
is in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. Light to gentle winds
prevail north of 20N and west of 50W. Moderate to locally fresh
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range north of
28N between 42W and 62W in NW swell. Seas in the 4-6 ft range
prevail elsewhere north of 20N and west of 30W. South of 20N, seas
of 5-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 65W, the front will dissipate over the
forecast waters today. A second cold front will sink southward
across the NW waters Sun through Mon then stall and dissipate
across the NW Bahamas late Tue.

$$
AL
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