[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jun 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm on either
side of the tropical wave, and it is near the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 15 knots.  Precipitation: it is
possible that any nearby precipitation may be more related to
the monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of The
Gambia and Senegal, to 10N20W 07N30W 07N36W 04N44W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N44W to 04N50W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong is from 07N to 09N between 16W and 18W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm on either
side of the rest of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 27N86W, about 180 nm to
the south of the Florida Panhandle.
Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 20N99W in the
southern part of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 25N southward from 90W westward. Upper
level moisture is curving anticyclonically toward the Gulf of
Mexico that is from 25N southward from 90W eastward.

The 1016 mb high pressure center is maintaining light to gentle
anticyclonic winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4
feet, in the entire area.

An area of low pressure in the NW Caribbean is forecast to move
slowly westward and across the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend
and over the southern Bay of Campeche early next week.
Otherwise, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
providing mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds, except off
the western Yucatan peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche where
local effects will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
at night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The weather in the NW Caribbean Sea consists of disorganized
rainshowers and a surface trough/a weakening low pressure
center. Continued development of this system is not likely
before it moves inland in northern Central America and the
Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall
is possible in Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and in
southeastern Mexico, through the weekend. Scattered moderate to
widely scattered strong is from 16N to 20N between the western
coast and coastal waters of Jamaica and 84W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 400 nm to
the ENE of Puerto Rico, in the Atlantic Ocean. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the Caribbean Sea and the
Atlantic Ocean from 16N to 24N between 55W and 64W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 300 nm to 400 nm of the center in the eastern quadrant.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds are from 17N to 24N
between 53W and 63W.

Fresh to strong trade winds are in the northwestern Caribbean
Sea, near the trough/low pressure center. The sea heights range
from 4 feet to 6 feet. Moderate to fresh trade winds, and sea
heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet, are in the remainder
of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 75W in Colombia and
SE Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in
the coastal waters of Colombia and Panama, from 10N to 12N
between 75W and 80W.

An area of low pressure in the NW Caribbean Sea is accompanied
by active weather eastward to 75W. The system is forecast to
move westward reaching the Yucatan peninsula by Sat. Fresh E to
SE winds are expected over the NW Caribbean through tonight in
association with the area of low pressure. Elsewhere, mainly
moderate to fresh trades will prevail with the exception of
fresh strong winds over the southern Caribbean roughly S of 15N
between 64W and 74W at night. Fresh to locally strong trade
winds are expected across much of the basin Sat night through
Mon as high pressure builds modestly north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is just to the west
of Andros Island in the Bahamas. Upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers parts of the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, Florida,
and the Atlantic Ocean from 20N to 28N between 74W and 87W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
area of upper level cyclonic wind flow.

A cold front passes through 31N47W, to 28N50W and 27N57W. A
stationary front continues from 27N57W, 27N70W, and to 25N80W
just off the southeastern coast of Florida. Precipitation:
rainshowers are within 240 nm to the north of the frontal
boundary, and within 360 nm to the south of the frontal
boundary.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 400 nm to
the ENE of Puerto Rico, in the Atlantic Ocean. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the Caribbean Sea and the
Atlantic Ocean from 16N to 24N between 55W and 64W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 300 nm to 400 nm of the center in the eastern quadrant.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds are from 17N to 24N
between 53W and 63W.

A 1032 mb high pressure center is near 41N31W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 16N
northward from 65W eastward.

Fresh to strong southwest winds are along the cold front, north
of 25N. Generally gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow is
from 64W eastward. Fresh to locally strong NE winds, and sea
heights that are reaching 8 feet, are from 20W eastward along
the coast of Africa. Sea heights that range from 6 feet to 9
feet, are near the front from 27N northward between 40W and 65W.
The sea heights are 3 feet from the Bahamas westward. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 5 feet in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean.

A stationary front extending from 26N65W to 25N79W will
dissipate over the forecast waters by Sat. A second cold front
will sink southward across the NW waters Sun through Mon then
stall and dissipate across the NW Bahamas late Tue.

$$
mt/al
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