[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172334
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jun 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 41W from 01N to 14N. It
is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is seen within 120 nm east of the wave from 04N to 07N, and
within 30 nm of the wave from 07N to 09N.

The axis of a central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W
south of 15N. It is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is inland the northwest part of Venezuela and
also over northeastern Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
14316W to 08N18W and to 07N24W. The ITCZ then continues from
07N24W to 05N37W. A second segment of the ITCZ is from 05N41W to
the coast of Venezuela near 09N59W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is within 180 nm southeast of the trough east
of 17W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 05N between
35W-38W, and within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 44W-46W.
Similar activity is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 33W-
36W and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 28W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high pressure is located south of southeastern
Louisiana near 27N90W. A weak surface trough is in the Bay of
Campeche from 22N93W to 19N93W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen south of 22N between 93W-94W, while
scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and to within
about 60 nm offshore the Yucatan Peninsula coast south of 22N.
The 1019 mb high is maintaining light to gentle anticyclonic
flow throughout along with seas of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, a modest low pressure center and its related
surface trough are located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea
just east of the Yucatan Peninsula will slowly drift west-
northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula tonight through Sat,
and then enter the Bay of Campeche by late Sat evening or early
Sun morning. This will bring wet weather to the bay, and also
cause winds and seas to increase Sun and Sun evening. Otherwise,
a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters, providing mainly
gentle to moderate east to southeast winds. Winds near the
Yucatan and eastern Bay of Campeche will pulse to fresh with
locally strong northeast to east winds on Mon and Tue nights

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Low pressure of 1009 mb is centered in the Gulf of Honduras near
17N88W. Increasing scattered to numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen from 16N to 19N between 81W-87W.
Fresh to strong trade winds are in the northwestern Caribbean
near the low pressure along with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere in
the Caribbean, moderate to fresh trade winds continue along
with seas of 4-7 ft. Scattered moderate convection associated
with the eastern Pacific monsoon trough segment is confined
to the extreme southwestern Caribbean south of 11N between the
coast of Colombia and the coast of northern Panama.

For the forecast, the area of low pressure is forecast to move
slowly west-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula tonight
through Sat, sustaining moderate to fresh winds and showery
conditions over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Sat
evening. A northeast to east trade-wind regime is expected for
much of the basin through midweek next week. Trade winds over
the south- central basin north of Colombia/Venezuela will pulse
to fresh with locally strong through midweek next week. Similar
wind speeds are also expected from south of Jamaica westward to
the Gulf of Honduras Sun through Mon evening. Convergent trade
winds near a monsoon trough axis should maintain showers and
thunderstorms across the southwestern basin through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N49W to 27N52W and to 26N57W, where
it transitions to a stationary front to 27N68W and to the NW
Bahamas. Fresh to strong southwest winds are along the cold
front, north of 25N. Seas are 8-9 ft north of 29N between 46W-
50W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the front
within 30 nm of a line from 25N54W to 26N50W. An upper-level low
centered to the northeast of the Leeward Islands near 22N62W is
currently producing isolated showers and possible weak isolated
thunderstorms from 19N to 22N between 57W-61W. High pressure
that is anchored by a high center near the Azores is producing
generally gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow east of about 64W.
Weaker high pressure is west of 61W. Seas are in the 3-6 ft
range over these areas. Northeast winds of fresh to locally
strong speeds are east of 20W along the coast of Africa along
with seas up to 8 ft.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the interior of
Hispaniola and over Cuba, with the activity over the eastern
part of Cuba lifting north-northeastward toward the southeastern
Bahamas. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are near the
lower and middle Florida Keys moving to the southwest.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
drift slowly eastward while gradually dissipate through Sat.
Meanwhile another cold front will exit the Georgia/Carolina coast
Sat evening, and sink southeastward through Mon before gradually
dissipating near the northwest Bahamas late Tue.

$$
Aguirre
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