[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jun 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 39W from 14N southward,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 02N to 09N between 36W and 45W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 72W from 14N southward,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted inland
over NW Venezuela and NE Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
14N16W to 08N18W to 07N24W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N24W
to 05N37W. A second segment of the ITCZ is from 05N41W to the
coast of Venezuela near 09N69W. Scattered moderate convection
associated with the monsoon trough is from 03N to 08N east of 19W.
Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm of both segments of the
ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high pressure is centered of the SE Louisiana coast
near 28N89W. A weak surface trough is noted in the Bay of
Campeche, producing a few showers. Light to gentle anticyclonic
flow prevails with 2-4 ft seas across the basin.

For the forecast, an area of low pressure located in the Gulf of
Honduras and the adjacent Caribbean waters is forecast to move
slowly northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend,
and into the Bay of Campeche early next week. This will cause
winds and seas in the bay to increase by Sun night. Otherwise, a
surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters providing mainly
gentle to moderate E to SE winds, except off the western Yucatan
peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche where local effects will
support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds at night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The 1010 mb low pressure centered in the Gulf of Honduras near
17N87W has a low chance (10%) of developing into a tropical
cyclone before moving inland over Belize later tonight or
tomorrow. Scattered moderate convection is from 16N to 20N west of
81W to the coasts of Belize and Mexico. Fresh to strong trades
are noted in the NW Caribbean near the low pressure, with seas of
3-6 ft. Elsewhere in the Caribbean, moderate to fresh trades
prevail with 4-7 ft seas. Scattered moderate convection,
associated with the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is from the coast
of Panama north to 11N east of 79W, including inland sections
Colombia.

For the forecast, the area of low pressure is forecast to move
slowly west-northwestward across the Gulf of Honduras where some
development is still possible today. Fresh to strong E to SE winds
are expected over the NW Caribbean through tonight in association
with the area of low pressure. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to
fresh trades will prevail with the exception of fresh to locally
strong winds over the southern Caribbean roughly S of 15N between
65W and 74W at night. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected
across much of the basin Sat night through Mon as high pressure
builds modestly north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N49W to 26N61W. A stationary front
continues from 26N61W to 26N76W. Fresh to strong SW winds are
along the cold front, north of 25N. Seas are 8-9 ft, north of 29N
between 46W and 50W. An upper level low centered NE of the
Leeward Islands is currently producing some scattered showers.
High pressure ridging prevails across the remainder of the
discussion waters, anchored by high pressure centered near the
Azores. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted across the
basin on the latest scatterometer data, with 3-6 ft seas. NE winds
are fresh to locally strong east of 20W along the coast of
Africa, with seas peaking to 8 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the frontal boundary will move
eastward across the NE waters today and will stall tonight before
dissipating over the forecast waters. A second cold front will
sink southward off the Georgia/Florida coast Sun through Mon, then
stall and dissipate across the NW Bahamas late Tue.

$$
Mahoney/Colon-Burgos
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