[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jun 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 37W from 14N southward,
moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Associated convection is
noted in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W from 15N southward,
moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 30 nm of the tropical wave north of 13N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 11N15W close to the border with Guinea-Bissau to 07N23W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N23W to 06N35W. It continues from 06N39W to
05N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N
between 10W and 16W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 03N to 07N between 25W and 43W, and from 05N to 09N
between 43W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle
winds are noted over the NE Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range south of 25N and 1-3 ft
north of 25N.

For the forecast, an area of low pressure located in the Gulf of
Honduras and the adjacent Caribbean waters is forecast to move
slowly northwestward and across the Yucatan Peninsula this
weekend and over the southern Bay of Campeche early next week.
Otherwise, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
providing mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds, except off
the western Yucatan peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche where
local effects will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
at night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An area of low pressure is found over the Gulf of Honduras and
across the adjacent Caribbean waters, accompanied by active
weather east and northeastward to 78W. Fresh to strong winds and
seas to 8 ft prevail NE of the low. Fresh to strong winds and seas
to 9 ft prevail over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to
fresh winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the area of low pressure will move slowly west
northwestward over the Gulf of Honduras where some development is
possible today. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected over
the NW Caribbean through tonight in association with the area of
low pressure. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades will
prevail with the exception of fresh to locally strong winds over
the southern Caribbean roughly S of 15N between 64W and 74W at
night. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across much of the
basin Sat night through Mon as high pressure builds modestly
north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N48W to 26N65W to 27N78W. Fresh to
strong winds and seas to 9 ft are noted within 60 nm east of the
front and north of 29N. High pressure ridging prevails across the
remainder of the discussion waters, anchored by high pressure
centered over the eastern Atlantic near 37N29W. Gentle to
moderate winds are elsewhere north of 20N with seas in the 5-7 ft
range. South of 20N, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 6-8 ft
prevail.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will move eastward
across the NE waters today and will stall tonight before
dissipating over the forecast waters. A second cold front will
sink southward across the NW waters Sun through Mon then stall and
dissipate across the NW Bahamas late Tue.

$$
AL
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