[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170618
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jun 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation:
any nearby precipitation also is related to the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 15N
southward, moving westward 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is inland within 540 nm to the east
of the tropical wave, and in the Caribbean Sea from 14N to 20N
between 60W and 73W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 5 knots to 10 knots. This tropical
wave is moving through Central America, from eastern Honduras
through Nicaragua, southward. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 630 nm to the east of the
tropical wave from 12N to 20N, and in Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 11N15W close to the border with Guinea-Bissau, to 07N23W.
The ITCZ continues from 07N23W, to 06N33W and 05N51W.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 05N to 12N
between 10W and 15W, and from 08N to 09N between 56W and 59W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 07N
between 25W and 42W. Isolated moderate to locally strong covers
the rest of the area that is from 10N southward between 42W and
60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N79W, on
top of the western end of an Atlantic Ocean cold front. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, Florida, and
the Gulf of Mexico from 24N northward between 74W and 88W.
Precipitation: numerous strong has been in the NE Gulf of
Mexico, and in the Florida Big Bend and in the Florida
Panhandle. The cloud top temperatures in the area have been
warming during the last few hours.

The cloud top temperatures have been warming during the last few
hours, from the southern half of Louisiana and in the coastal
waters of Louisiana.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from
24N southward between 87W and 101W.
The cyclonic circulation center is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 22N southward between the Yucatan
Peninsula and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

A surface ridge is along 27N/28N. Broad surface anticyclonic
wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

Light to gentle winds are in the northern half of the Gulf.
Gentle to moderate easterly winds are in the southern half. The
sea heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet in the eastern Gulf, and
they range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the western Gulf.

An area of low pressure located near eastern Honduras and the
adjacent Caribbean waters is forecast to move slowly
northwestward and across the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and
over the southern Bay of Campeche early next week. Otherwise, a
surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters providing mainly
gentle to moderate E to SE winds, except off the western Yucatan
Peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche where local effects will
support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds at night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 220 nm to
the NE of Puerto Rico, in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to
locally strong, is from 14N northward between 60W and 73W. This
area of clouds and precipitation also is to the north of the
68W/69W tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 5 knots to 10 knots. This tropical
wave is moving through Central America, from eastern Honduras
through Nicaragua, southward. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 630 nm to the east of the
tropical wave from 12N to 20N, and in Nicaragua.

Fresh to locally strong east-southeast trade winds, and sea
heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, are in the
north-central basin. Moderate to fresh east-southeast trade
winds, sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the
eastern and south central sections of the basin. Gentle to
moderate easterly trade winds, and seas heights that range from
3 feet to 5 feet, are in the northwestern and southwestern
sections of the basin. Gentle to moderate monsoon trough-related
winds are in the southwestern part of the basin.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia and
83W. Precipitation: numerous strong is in Colombia, within 120
nm to the south of the eastern end of the monsoon trough.
Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in the western
half of Panama.

An area of low pressure near eastern Honduras and across the
adjacent Caribbean waters is accompanied by very active water
east and northeastward to 80W. The system is forecast to move
slowly northwestward and could emerge over the Gulf of Honduras
where some development is possible tonight and Friday. Fresh to
strong E to SE winds are expected over the NW Caribbean through
Sat morning in association with the area of low pressure.
Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail with the
exception of fresh to locally strong winds over the southern
Caribbean roughly S of 15N between 64W and 74W at night. Fresh
to strong trade winds are expected across much of
the basin Sat night through Mon as high pressure builds modestly
north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N53W, to 28N60W and 27N70W, to
27N80W just off the east central coast of Florida.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 240 nm to the southeast of the cold front from 60W
eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N
northward from 60W westward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N43W.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is within
135 nm of the cyclonic center in the NE quadrant.

A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 37N29W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 17N
northward from 48W eastward.

Moderate to fresh southerly winds, and sea heights that range
from 6 feet to 9 feet, are near the front from 29N northward
between 65W and 76W. Light to gentle winds, and sea heights that
range from 3 feet to 5 feet, are from 25N to 29N between 40W and
Bahamas. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh
NNE to NE trade winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to
7 feet, are from 08N to 25N between the coast of Africa and the
Lesser Antilles/the coast of South America. Light to gentle
winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 5 feet, are in
the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extending from 27N65W to 27N78W will move eastward
across the NE waters through Fri and drag the western portion
along 27N, where it will stall Fri night before dissipating over
the forecast waters. A second but weaker cold front will sink
southward across the NW waters Sun through Mon then stall and
dissipate across the NW Bahamas late Tue.

$$
mt
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net