[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162321
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jun 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W from
02N to 15N, moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is found from 03N to 05N between 31W and 35W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis is near 68W south
of 14N into northwestern Venezuela and southeastern Colombia. It
is moving westward at 20 kt. Aided by upper-level divergent
flow, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring
over the southeastern basin, north of Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W south of 19N
to across Costa Rica and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. It is
moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Aided by a rather robust mid-
level trough in the vicinity, numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted over the majority of the northwestern
Caribbean from 13N to 21N between 78W-85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal to south of the
Cabo Verde Islands at 10N22W. Scattered moderate convection is
south of the trough near the coast of Liberia and Ivory Coast.
An ITCZ segment extends from 06N23W to 04N32W, and another one
extends from 06N37W to the French Guiana coast at 06N52W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ
between 25W-28W and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 28W-
32W. Similar convection is within 60 nm north of the second ITCZ
between 48W-52W, and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between
49W-52W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Panama-
Colombia border and adjacent Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from near 27N89W north to inland
southeastern Louisiana. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
seen north of 27N between 90W-93W. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high
pressure center over the northwest Gulf near 28N94W controls the
wind regime for the time being. Light to gentle winds are seen
across the northern half of the Gulf, while gentle to moderate
easterly winds are found for the southern half. Seas range from
1-2 ft in the eastern Gulf to 2-4 ft in the western Gulf.

Scattered moderate convection has moved offshore the northern
Yucatan Peninsula from 19N to 22N east of 92W to inland the
peninsula.

For the forecast, an area of low pressure located across eastern
Honduras and the adjacent Caribbean waters is forecast to move
slowly northwestward and across the Yucatan Peninsula this
weekend and over the southern Bay of Campeche early next week.
Otherwise, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
providing mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds, except off the
western Yucatan peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche where local
effects will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds at
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination of convergent trade winds with an upper-level
trough north of the area is resulting in scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms over the Dominican Republic and nearby
waters. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections for additional weather in the basin. Fresh to locally
strong east-southeast trade winds along with seas of 6-8 ft are
present over the north-central basin. Moderate to fresh east-
southeast trade winds and seas of 4-6 ft are in the eastern and
south-central sections of the basin. Gentle to moderate easterly
trade winds and seas of 3-5 ft are across the northwestern and
southwestern sections of the basin. Gentle to moderate monsoon
trough-related winds are in the southwestern part of the basin.

For the forecast, an area of low pressure extends from inland across
eastern Honduras across the adjacent Caribbean waters and is
accompanied by very active water east and northeastward to 80W.
The system is forecast to move slowly northwestward and could
emerge over the Gulf of Honduras where some development is
possible by Friday. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds are
expected over the northwest Caribbean through Sat morning in
association with the area of low pressure. Elsewhere, mainly
moderate to fresh trades will prevail with the exception of fresh
to locally strong winds over the southern Caribbean roughly S of
15N between 64W-74W at night. Fresh to strong trade winds are
expected across much of the basin Sat night through Mon as high
pressure builds modestly north of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from the north-central Atlantic through
31N58W, and continues through 28N70W to 28N77W, then curves
northwestward to 30N80W. A broad upper-level trough is sliding
eastward over the area of the front. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms in lines are noted north of 27N between 50W-55W,
and from 24N to 27N between 58W-65W. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds along with 6-9 ft seas are present near the front north of
29N between 65W- 76W.

A broad surface ridge originates from the 1025 mb Azores High is
supporting light to gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas from 25N to 29N
between 40W and Bahamas. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh
NNE to NE trades and seas at 4-7 ft are seen from 08N to 25N
between the African coast and the Lesser Antilles/South American
coast. Light to gentle winds along with seas of 4-5 ft continue
across the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
move eastward across the northeast waters through Fri and drag
the western portion along 27N, where it will Fri night before
dissipating over the forecast waters. Fresh to strong SW winds
are expected ahead of the front and east of 65W through this
evening. A second but weaker cold front will sink southward
across the northwestern waters Sun through Mon, then stall and
dissipate across the NW Bahamas late on Tue.

$$
Aguirre
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