[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jun 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from 14N southward, and
moving W at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found
from 03N to 05N between 31W and 35W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W from 14N southward into
northwestern Venezuela and southeastern Colombia, and moving W at
20 to 25 kt. Aided by upper-level divergent flow, scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the
southeastern basin, north of Venezuela.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from 19N southward
across Costa Rica/Panama into the East Pacific Ocean, and moving W
at 5 to 10 kt. Coupling with a robust mid-level trough in the
vicinity, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is found
over the northwest and west-central basin, east of Honduras and
Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal to south of the
Cabo Verde Islands at 10N22W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring south of the trough near the coast of Liberia and Ivory
Coast. An ITCZ reaches westward from 06N23W to 04N32W, and from
06N37W to the French Guiana coast at 06N52W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen up to 80 nm along either side of the first ITCZ
segment, and from 04N to 09N between 35W and the coast of French
Guiana and Suriname near the second segment.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Panama-
Colombia border and adjacent Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from east of New Orleans through the
Mississippi coast. It is producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms near Port Fourchon, LA. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high
pressure just southwest of New Orleans continues to dominate much
of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds are seen across the northern
half of the Gulf, while gentle to moderate easterly winds are
found for the southern half. Seas range from 1 to 2 ft in the
eastern Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft for the western Gulf.

For the forecast, an area of low pressure located inland near the
border of northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras is forecast to move
slowly northwestward and could emerge over the Gulf of Honduras
where some development is possible by Friday. This system is
expected to continue moving northwestward and may emerge early
next week over the southern Bay of Campeche. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over Belize,
southeastern Mexico and the adjacent waters through the weekend.
Otherwise, a 1019 mb high will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters, providing mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds, except
off the western Yucatan Peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche where
local effects will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
at night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are joining forces with an upper-level low
north of the area to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the Dominican Republic and nearby waters. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional
weather in the basin. Fresh to locally strong E to ESE trades and
6 to 8 ft seas are present over the north-central basin. Moderate
to fresh ESE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist for the eastern
and south-central basin. Gentle to moderate easterly trades and
seas of 3 to 5 ft are found across the northwestern basin. Gentle
to moderate monsoonal winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the
southwestern basin.

For the forecast, a low pressure located inland near the border
of northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras is accompanied by a
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms extending offshore.
This system is forecast to move slowly northwestward and could
emerge over the Gulf of Honduras where some development is
possible by Friday. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected
over the NW Caribbean today through Sat morning in association
with the low pressure. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will
prevail elsewhere, with the exception of fresh to locally strong
winds over the southern Caribbean roughly S of 15N between 64W and
72W at night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves westward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N60W through 28N70W to 29N78W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are evident near and up to 110 nm south of the
front. Moderate to fresh southerly winds along with 6 to 9 ft seas
are present near the front north of 29N between 65W and 76W.

A broad surface ridge originated from the 1025 mb Azores High is
supporting light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas from 25N to
29N between 40W and Bahamas. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh
NNE to NE trades and seas at 4 to 7 ft are seen from 08N to 25N
between the African coast and the Lesser Antilles/South American
coast. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft
prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move E-SE
across the west-central Atlantic waters today, reaching 27N by
tonight, then stall on Fri before dissipating over the forecast
waters. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected ahead of the front
and E of 65W through this evening. A second but weaker cold front
will move across the same region on Sun. A ridge will follow the
front.

$$

Chan
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net